xG Review Of Last Weekend’s Football

Our trader looks back at this weekend's Premier League games from an xG perspective

Steve, Senior Trader

Steve, Senior Trader

1 year ago

Arsenal bounced back from a deserved defeat on Wednesday by putting Aston Villa to the sword. The Gunners were well on top based on xG, scoring 3.0 to Villa’s 0.5, and were good value for their 4-2 win according to fbref.com. Gabriel Martinelli’s breakaway goal in the final seconds was worth a whopping 0.97xG.

Their midweek conquerors, Man City, surprisingly lost ground in the title race following a 1-1 draw away at struggling Nottingham Forest. With 2.5xG for and 1xG against, City did more than enough to win the game and this must go down as two points dropped. Forest, conversely, will be delighted with this result.

Pressure on Potter

Pressure continues to mount on Graham Potter, but the Blues boss was again unlucky to see his side fail to pick up three points having ‘won’ their game against Southampton 1.5-0.8 on xG. A defeat against Spurs at the weekend may seal Potter’s fate, but his side are only a good striker away from being very competitive. Southampton, meanwhile, secured a vital victory in Rubén Sellés’ first game as caretaker manager, with James Ward-Prowse superbly firing home a free-kick that was worth just 0.07xG.

South coast rivals Bournemouth also recorded a huge win over relegation rivals Wolves, with the 1-0 win a smash and grab both on xG and the flow of the game. Marcus Tavernier’s goal was worth a whopping 0.77xG, accounting for almost all of Bournemouth’s 1xG total. It has been nearly a year since a striker scored for Wolves in the league, and they had nobody to convert their 1.2 worth of xG in a game they dominated.

Everton had looked good when beating Arsenal in Sean Dyche’s first game, and it may be that their home form saves them. They deserved to beat Leeds on xG, clocking up 1.4 to the away side’s 0.5 to record a fair 1-0 win.

Palace Improve

Crystal Palace have struggled on the expected goals metric recently, but finally won a game on xG at Brentford, who will be disappointed with creating just 0.7 at home. Palace’s 1.1xG compared favourably, but was still only worth a point as the sides shared a 1-1 draw.

In the other London derby of the weekend, Spurs (1.5xG) deservedly beat West Ham (0.5).

Elsehwere, the two sides in this weekend’s Carabao Cup final suffered wildly differing fortunes.
Man United ran out very fair winners against Leicester, winning the game 4.1-1.4 on xG and 3-0 on the actual scoreline. Newcastle, meanwhile, can count themselves unlucky not to get anything from their game with Liverpool. Despite playing much of the game with ten men, the Magpies recorded a very competitive 2xG, with Jurgen Klopp’s side not far ahead on 2.4 – a draw would have been fair here.

Flukey Fulham!

Finally, the most unfair result of the weekend was at the AMEX, where Brighton (2.2) dominated Fulham (0.3) only for Manor Solomon’s late 0.11xG effort to steal the points for the Cottagers.