xG Review Of Last Weekend’s Football

Our trader looks back at this week's games from an xG perspective.

Steve, Senior Trader

Steve, Senior Trader

1 year ago

Wolves (0.8xG) and Fulham (0.5xG) shared a fair 1-1 draw on Friday night prior to a weekend of mostly low scores, with only 5 of the 16 sides who played breaking the 1xG mark according fbref.com

At the top of the list were West Ham, who hammered Nottingham Forest 4-0. The Hammers were somewhat flattered by the score, aided by Declan Rice’s sublime curling effort that was worth just 0.04xG, but were still full value for their win having won 2.7-0.4 on expected goals. Forest have scored just three times on the road this season and will be reliant on their home form to stay up.

As too, will Everton, who played very well at home for the third time under Sean Dyche and were unfortunate to lose to Aston Villa. With a final xG score of 1.6-1.9, a 1-1 draw would have been a fair result. As it was, Villa ran out 2-0 winners, and should have done enough to stay up now.

Tight at the bottom

Leeds finally turned their xG dominance into a victory, and probably just about deserved their 1-0 win over Southampton having won 0.9-0.4 on the xG metric. Saints continue to struggle, as do their South coast rivals Bournemouth, who accrued 1xG at home against Man City but conceded 2.3xg. City deserved to win the game, although the 4-1 scoreline was a bit harsh on the Cherries.

Crystal Palace (0.6) and Liverpool (0.9) shared a bore draw that was about right on xG, with neither side being able to have any real complaints about the 0-0 scoreline. Graham Potter’s Chelsea lost on xG for the first time in eight games, but they were only marginal losers on the metric – 0.4 to Spurs’ 0.7 – and didn’t deserve to lose 2-0. That will be of little consolation to Potter, on whom pressure continues to mount.

Leicester nil…

Finally, goals were anticipated at the King Power stadium, but Arsenal ran out 1-0 winners over Leicester, with the Mikel Arteta’s side scoring their goal from just 0.7xG. Normally one of the most clinical sides in the league, Leicester failed to record any xG at all and ended the game on 0.0xG, the first time this has happened in the league this season.