Weekend Premier League tips: Luton leverage, Selhurst stalemates, stubborn Sheff

Our weekend tips have Luton and Sheff Utd angles against Chelsea and Man City

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betzone

6 months ago

This weekend’s Premier League betting tips are two-parts finding rewarding ways to play on sides promoted from the Championship last season against top-flight blue bloods and one part banking on the extension of a six-meeting drawing streak.

Weekend Premier League tips

Luton to score first vs Chelsea @ 19/10

Crystal Palace vs Brentford – draw & under 2.5 goals @ 14/5

Sheffield United (+3) to beat Manchester City @ 21/20

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Hatters look value to start sharper than Chelsea at Kenilworth Road

After leading Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City at home this season Luton finally got their win over a member of the Premier League’s monied elite last Saturday – beating Newcastle 1-0.

Rob Edwards’ side have now lost 1-0 to Spurs, held Liverpool 1-1, lost 3-4 to the Gunners and 1-2 to the reigning champions at Kenilworth Road this season. Yet they’re a hefty 17/4 to beat a Chelsea side that have lost their last four Premier League away games.

The Luton +2 handicap bet that would have copped against all those previously mentioned visitors is far too short to play against Chelsea at 1/2. A much better value option about backing the improving Hatters to outrun the odds against the inconsistent Blues is the 19/10 on the hosts to net first.

Chelsea have shipped first in seven of their nine EPL away games this term, including each of their last six. Luton, meanwhile, have opened the scoring in their last five home games.

Tip: Luton to score first vs Chelsea @ 19/10

Serial stale-mates set for another share of the spoils in South London

Crystal Palace vs Brentford gives off strong draw energy straight out of the gate. The Eagles’ have bagged a division-low eight home goals from nine games in front of the faithful this season and sit outright top of the EPL under 2.5 goals table with 53% of their games featuring two or less.

Only Sheffield United have bagged fewer away league strikes than the Bees this term and Thomas Frank must pick a side to improve on that without recourse to Bryan Mbuemo. The Cameroonian, who has scored seven and assisted three of his sides’ 27 EPL goals is out injured until April.

However, it’s when you consider the above in the context of the sides’ recent head-to-head that the draw becomes a must bet. They’ve met six times since Brentford earned promotion to the top-flight three seasons ago, the scores: 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1 and 1-1.

The draw is a 9/4 wager but given the goal-shy nature of the combatants and recent renewals of this fixture, adding the under 2.5 goals kicker for a 14/5 payout is worth the risk.

Tip: Crystal Palace vs Brentford – draw & under 2.5 goals @ 14/5

Wilder wiles the key to Blades outrunning huge underdog status

Sheffield United are huge 28/1 outsiders in the betting away to Manchester City but those derisory numbers could overestimate the gulf between the two sides at the Etihad.

An 88th minute Rodri winner was required for City to see off the Blades 2-1 at Bramall Lane on the 27th of August when the ‘Steel City’ club were under the guidance of ex-boss Paul Heckingbottom.

The Blades are 21/20 to win with the benefit a three-goal head start (+3 handicap) and the fact that Chris Wilder has replaced his former assistant in the dugout only adds to the allure of the wager.

Wilder managed United four times against Guardiola’s City four times during the Sheffield club’s last top-flight stay from 2019 and 2021. City won all four, but only by scorelines of 2-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 1-0.

United have yet to lose by more than two since Wilder’s return and ended Aston Villa’s 15-match home league winning streak by claiming a 1-1 draw on their last away trip.

Tip: Sheffield United (+3) to beat Manchester City @ 21/20