Premier League xG Review

An in-depth review at the xGoals across the Premier League for the fixtures in game week 21

Steve, Senior Trader

Steve, Senior Trader

1 year ago

Frank Lampard became the seventh Premier League manager to be sacked today following Everton’s 2-0 defeat away at West Ham. The Toffees sit second bottom in the actual table and fill the same position based on expected points according to understat.com, and Lampard can have no complaints about the result on Saturday, with Everton mustering up a mere 0.29xG. West Ham, meanwhile, recorded an impressive 2.47, as they created two clear cut changes for Jarrod Bowen, which the England winger dispatched with little fuss.

Fellow strugglers Wolves succumbed 3-0 to Man City on Sunday, creating just 0.47xG against a defence that is second best in the league on expected goals against. City, meanwhile, were full value for the win, recording 3.33xG, with Erling Haaland netting three times from just 1.89xG worth of chances. At least 1.3 of this xG was gifted to City by the away side, who will have to cut out the errors if they are to avoid this drop this season.

Bottom side Southampton (0.67) deservedly lost to Aston Villa (1.16), who continue to improve under the shrewd Unai Emergy, while Leeds and Brentford managed just 0.54xG between them in a game that predictably ended 0-0.

Newcastle continue to be profligate in front of goal, and have now scored just once in their last four league games despite registering a hefty 7.15xG, with another 1.44 notched here against Crystal Palace (0.33). Still, their process remains excellent, as do their top 4 prospects.

Brighton (1.94) can probably count themselves a little unlucky to only have drawn with Leicester (1.36), while Chelsea (1.84) edged out Liverpool (1.30) on xG but couldn’t break the deadlock as the two sides played out their third 0-0 draw in a row despite accruing over 10xG in those games.

Perhaps the most surprising xG result of the weekend was in the Arsenal v Man Utd match. While the match seemed competitive and closely-fought visually, the xG reveals a very different story, with the Gunners producing a vintage display, recording 2.90xG for and limiting United to just 0.27, the second lowest figure in the gameweek. Mikel Arteta’s side are genuine title contenders, while the underlying xG here suggests that Erik ten Hag’s side still have a long way to go to compete for domestic silverware.

In the final game of the weekend, Fulham (1.09) can feel a little hard done by not to have taken something from their game against Spurs (0.99), as a draw would have been a fair result. The brilliance of Harry Kane, who bagged from a chance worth just 0.07xG, was the difference.