There are two factors that Manchester City vs Manchester United predictions for the 2023 FA Cup Final can’t ignore: That City can win the second leg of a historic treble at the expense of their Mancunian rivals and that said rivals have a far better record against them than they should in the post Fergie-era.
United have already secured silverware and Champions League qualification in their first season under Erik Ten Hag. Their second Wembley showpiece of the campaign represents a no pressure free hit at spoiling Pep Guardiola’s attempt to emulate Sir Alex Ferguson’s incredible 1999 feat.
Finding the best value way to respect the chance that the Red Devils may spoil the second leg of City’s treble tilt has been our preoccupation here. You be the judge of whether we’ve found it.
Bet on the latest football odds at Betzone
United’s record against City is improbably good
Guardiola’s arrival at the Etihad in February 2016 coincided with an era of soap-operatic ups and downs and ins and outs at Old Trafford. Yet in the 19 games they’ve contested since then, there’s almost nothing in the head-to-head. City have won nine, United eight and they’ve drawn twice.
United won their most recent encounter 2-1 in January too, making it difficult to come away with any conclusion other than that the route to value in this match lies in finding the right way to back the Red Devils to outrun their 5/1 underdog status in the normal time win-draw-win market.
The 17/10 about Ten Hag’s outfit with a +1 handicap doesn’t appeal – City have recorded 6-3 and 4-1 wins over them inside the last three Manchester derbies – while United on the +2 handicap only returns a measly 8/13.
A price of 16/5 to win the FA Cup by any means, whether normal time, extra time or penalties appeals more, but given City have tended to veer between hammering them and succumbing to them in recent campaigns, it feels like a bet that depends on what side they get out of bed.
Instead backing United to win either half looks an interesting play. Evidently, they won at least one half when beating City at Old Trafford earlier this year, but they also won the second half 3-2 when going down 6-3 at the Etihad in October.
At 9/4 you have a wager that takes the potential for United to cause an upset into account, but you won’t necessarily do your dough even if this does turn out to be the successful second leg of the Cityzens’ treble tilt.
FA Cup Finals and Manchester Derbies are both cool on cards
Four of the last five FA Cup finals have seen three cards or less issued and that state of affairs looks likely to be extended given recent clashes between the two finalists and City’s recent form all told.
Five Manchester derbies have come and gone since one called for four or more cautions to be issued, while the champions haven’t collected more than a single booking in any of their last seven games against top-flight opposition.