Man City vs Arsenal predictions: Three reasons to be with Gunners in Community Shield

The stage looks to be set for Arsenal to avenge their spring losses to City

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11 months ago

All conquering treble winners Manchester City face Premier League runners up Arsenal in the 2023 Community Shield as they bid to extend their monopoly on domestic silverware into the new campaign.

City were a different grade to the Gunners in both their decisive league meetings last term, yet they’re only 8/11 favourites (generous by their standards) to win at Wembley.

The Community Shield has never quite taken on the ‘Super Cup’ significance of its German, Italian or Spanish equivalents, which may explain the Cityzens’ very moderate record in the game. Our Man City vs Arsenal predictions are looking at the best way to bet against them.

Man City vs Arsenal betting tip

Arsenal to win or draw (double chance) @ 23/20

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City’s Shield showings reflect a side with bigger fish to fry

It may feel perverse to oppose the champions of England and Europe given the superiority with which they swatted Arsenal aside in the moments that mattered last term.

Indeed, there will be a significant number of bettors who see the 8/11 about a win in normal time as the kind of match betting value seldom available about the Pep Guardiola’s side.

However, City don’t have a great record in the Community Shield since their ascent to EPL aristocracy began in the 2010s, with three wins in seven appearances since. They have contested four in Guardiola’s time at the helm, winning two but losing in each of the last two seasons.

For a side that near enough expects to win the EPL and Champions League every season it makes complete sense not to be at boiling point for this early August affair.

Wembley in August is when underdogs have their day

Betting underdogs, most often the FA Cup winners (although City scooped the lot last term) also have a brilliant record, lifting the Shield in seven of the past 10 editions.

Arsenal are a whopping 16/5 to win the match in normal time, 9/5 to win the tie, 11/5 in the draw no bet market and 23/20 in the double chance betting – all compelling prices. The above historical data isn’t the only reason to suspect they’ll be closer to City in this fixture either.

Arsenal have strengthened while City have been treading water

Mikel Arteta has been out doing statement business this summer, with Declan Rice the jewel in the crown, flanked by Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber.

There can be little doubt that the dynamism and leadership of Rice in particular will improve Arsenal where it matters most – in central midfield. All three will be keen to hit the ground with statement showings against City, as will the incumbents who play in the same positions.

By contrast, City have arguably not even parred the window so far. Club captain Ilkay Gundogan has departed for Barcelona with likely replacement Matteo Kovacic the sole incomer of note.

Riyad Mahrez has also departed to leave their hugely enviable squad ever so slightly weaker.

Why not back Arsenal in a more aggressive market?

Having digested the points above, there will be bettors minded to take on City by backing Arsenal to win in normal time, draw no bet or to win the trophy. All look decent value.

The Gunners double chance bet is our pick chiefly because there was a significant gulf between the sides when they met in the spring. Taking the match into extra time would represent a step forward for Arteta’s men.

Arsenal’s stronger squad and City’s seeming lack of focus on winning the Community Shield will bring them closer but whether the gap has closed enough for them beat the champions is harder to call.