Champions League betting tips: Unders the strategy as tension ratchets up

Pragmatism is expected to outweigh expansive play in the UCL semi-final second legs



3 weeks ago

The Champions League semi-finals are finely poised ahead of the second legs with Borussia Dortmund 1-0 up on Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid all square with Bayern Munich at 2-2 following their first-leg draw in Germany.

Both ties produced some delightfully expansive football last week, but our best bets for the return fixtures expect pragmatism to keep a lid on the scoring.

Champions League semi-final first leg best bets

Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund – Under 2.5 goals @ 8/5

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich – Under 2.5 goals @ 5/4

Bet on the latest Champions League odds at Betzone

Total goals value may lie at the counterintuitive end of the spectrum in Paris

Betzone News followers will have endured a frustrating evening last Wednesday, when PSG and Dortmund conspired to miss a hatful of sitters to make a mockery of our over 3.5 goals wager.

Les Parisens alone had nine shots off target and the logical assumption might be that the 6/5 about at least four goals scored in the return contest at Parc des Princes is the bet to be on.

However, these adversaries have now played each other three times in this season’s Champions League and those meetings have yet to see more than two goals scored (2-0, 1-1 and 1-0).

That’s enough to give the 8/5 about under 2.5 goals a hint of value when Dortmund return to the French capital, with their 1-0 aggregate lead leaving them in a tricky position in terms of how to go about the business of securing their place in the final.

It’s highly unlikely Die Schwarzgelben will go out all guns blazing in a bid to bolster their advantage and a cagey contest is expected to ensue as the Germans bid to frustrate their hosts before hitting them on the counter, while Les Parisiens push forward with one eye on keeping the back door shut.

Tip: Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund – Under 2.5 goals @ 8/5

Second-leg tension to limit continental heavyweights’ attacking appetites

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich combined to land us a tasty 16/5 draw and both teams to score payday in Bavaria, but it would be a surprise if the second leg is as free flowing given what’s at stake.

Both sides played out high scoring first legs at the last eight stage – Real drew 3-3 with Manchester City at the Bernabeu, while Bayern were held 2-2 by Arsenal at the Emirates – but in both cases their ties’ decisive fixtures were far less open affairs.

Madrid pulled off a heroic rearguard action to ride a 1-1 draw through to penalty shootout glory having been outplayed by City, while Die Roten made a mockery of the leaky defence that’s undermined their efforts all season to get past the Gunners 1-0 at the Allianz Arena.

The pair are 5/4 to play out another under 2.5 goals second leg in Spain amid the tension that comes with the enormous weight of expectation from their followers and the footballing word in general.

Tip: Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich – Under 2.5 goals @ 5/4