Epsom Derby 2024 tips: Winner available at a punter-Friendly price

James Fanshawe’s Ambiente Friendly is a nice price for the Derby even if the rain comes



3 weeks ago

The 2024 Epsom Derby looks certain to be a fascinating renewal with last season’s champion two-year-old and hugely hyped 2,000 Guineas damp squib City Of Troy (10/3) being challenged for favouritism by Los Angeles (7/2), his stablemate at Aidan O’Brien’s storied Ballydoyle yard.

However, the pair are readily taken on with a hugely eye-catching trial winner that rates a far better price than he should be due to a combination of ground concerns and the profile of his yard.

Epsom Derby 2024 tips

Best Bet: Ambiente Friendly to win @ 6/1

Each-way: God’s Window @ 40/1

Bet on the latest Derby odds at Betzone

Impressive Lingfield Derby Trial winner a punter-Friendly price

Aidan O’Brien saddles three runners in this year’s Epsom Derby – a relatively small squad by his past extravagant standards – but two of them still take a significant chunk out of the market.

City Of Troy (10/3) and Los Angeles (7/2), are joined by obvious pacemaker Euphoria, but while the leading duo will have their backers there are also plenty of reasons to oppose them.

The former finished a moderate ninth in the 2,000 Guineas having been sent off at 4/6 following a hype campaign that even the often-effusive O’Brien may blush about in hindsight. He’s also been drawn in the dreaded stall one – berth to just one winner in the past 24 runnings.

Los Angeles is more compelling as an unbeaten trial winner trained by the master of Ballydoyle, but his victory in the Group 3 Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown doesn’t look great form. The last horse to win that race and go on to Epsom glory was High Chapparal in 2002.

Our selection against the pair is James Fanshawe’s AMBIENTE FRIENDLY who ran out an enormously taking winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial. The Gleneagles colt made light of a strong pace (1.71 seconds faster than standard) to float clear 2f from home and score with contemptuous ease.

Lingfield offers a fine gauge of colt’s ability to handle Epsom’s undulations due to its rolling camber and the form took a boost when Meydaan, seven-and-three-quarters of a length back in third that day went out and won the listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood on the 25th of May.

The going at Epsom is currently good-to-soft with around 3mm of rain expected during the course of Friday, but while Ambiente Friendly has shown his best on good ground so far, Gleneagles’ progeny have a very creditable 23% win-run ratio on soft ground.

Were he under the tutelage of O’Brien he’d be far shorter than the 6/1 available at the time of writing, yet his trainer has a strong track record at the highest level when he has the ammunition. Fanshawe has won 23 Group 1s – most recently with dual top-flight scorer Audarya in 2020.

Tip: Ambiente Friendly to win @ 6/1

Trust in training duo with superb Epsom record for each-way interest

Horses place in the Derby at chunky prices year after year, but it can often be difficult to analyse where the runs came from even when looking at their form in retrospect.

Runners in the purple silks of Ammo Racing or the white and green livery of Ahmad Al Shakih will certainly pique the interest after big priced minor medallists in the last four runnings.

Ammo sent out King Of Steel to finish second at 66/1 behind Auguste Rodin last year and 50/1 shot Mojo Star to fill the same position behind Adayar in 2021. Meanwhile, the Al Shaikh-owned Hoo Ya Mal found only Desert Crown too good in 2022 at a massive 150/1 and the same benefactor’s Khalifa Sat was runner-up to Serpentine in 2020.

This year Ammo field Dallas Star (25/1) and Mr Hampstead (100/1) while Al Shaikh rolls the dice with Deira Mile (22/1) and Sayedaty Sadaty (50/1). It would be difficult to put each-way thieves off rolling the dice on any of the quartet but preference for a big-priced play for the places is GOD’S WINDOW.

Easily his best form is his two-length third behind the reopposing Ancient Wisdom on heavy ground in the Group 1 Kameko Futurity at the back end of last season but he’ll welcome any juice underfoot and is trained by an operation that must be taken seriously at Epsom.

John and Thady Gosden have sent out seven winners from 19 runners at the course during the last five years at an impressive strike rate of 37%, with a further four of those runners hitting the first three.

That would indicate the Clarehaven operation don’t send many to the track the deem to have no chance.

Tip: God’s Window to win (each-way) @ 40/1