For the first time this summer England will go into an Ashes Test match as favourites, with Ben Stokes’ men 5/4 to follow up their series saving third Test victory at Headingley with another do-or-die triumph in the fourth Test at Old Trafford.
Australia, meanwhile, are 6/4 to prevail with a win that would secure the urn and a first series success as tourists since 2001. A result could prove tough to come by though – rain is currently forecast all day Saturday and Sunday in Manchester.
Betting on the outcome looks dicey as a result, so our England vs Australia tips are focusing on other markets as we seek to follow up 11/10 and 11/2 winning picks at Headingley.
England vs Australia Lord’s Test Match Tips
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Brook to continue in full flow with five-berth return secured
Harry Brook has been one of the most consistent England batters across the series so far, carding scores of 32, 46, 50, 4, 3 and 75. Those tallies look better again if his one innings at number three (the three) is removed from the equation.
Following that failed first innings experiment at Headingley, Moeen Ali jumped up the order to third to allow Brook to return to his favoured fifth spot and Ben Stokes was rewarded with a top-scoring second innings knock of 75 that gave England the platform to get over the line and claim victory.
Moeen will play at three again at Old Trafford, giving Brook the opportunity to build on that confidence enhancing display from his preferred station in the order.
The Yorkshire right-hander’s strike rate (number of runs scored per 100 balls faced) is 79.54, which is behind only Zac Crawley (79.67) among batters from either side in the series. Provided Brook can hang around, he’s more than capable of building up a substantial score at a very jaunty clip.
Back Durham destroyer for another first innings demolition job
The Aussies will certainly be thankful Mark Wood wasn’t selected for the first or second tests of this series after the 33-year-old quick blasted through their batters with five-first innings wickets in Leeds. He added two more in the second innings and even chipped in with some of the match-winning runs for good measure.
Fortunately for England, Old Trafford has also been good to Wood in the past. He’s taken nine Test wickets at the ground from 37 overs (a fraction over a wicket every four overs bowled).
Warner’s Old Trafford opening partnerships hint at continued misery
The fact that Stuart Broad has been living rent-free in David Warner’s head for some time now won’t be news to the majority of cricket fans. The Nottinghamshire seamer has dismissed the tourists’ opener 17 times in Test cricket, including 12 times in 11 Tests since the start of the 2019 Ashes.
Across the last 10 years Australia’s average score for the first wicket partnership at Old Trafford is 25 (from four innings). However, when that’s reduced to the three innings in which Warner was one of the openers, that average drops to just eight, with scores of 23, 1 and 0.