Three is a magic number
Three-peat. It isn’t really a word, and a three-peat hasn’t been a reality for the NFL teams seeking it. However, reigning Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, are looking to change all that after capturing the past two NFL titles.
Looking at the previous teams to bid for a three-peat, the Green Bay Packers brought the first two Super Bowl titles to Titletown, but the New York Jets from the upstart AFL won Super Bowl III. The Miami Dolphins created history by becoming the first — and so far only — team to complete a Perfect Season, following an unbeaten regular season campaign by winning the Super Bowl. But further history eluded them in their search for a three-peat. The team that replaced them as world champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, twice won back-to-back championships, and twice the hat-trick eluded them.
Immediately after winning consecutive Super Bowls, the San Francisco 49ers’ players openly spoke on the sideline about the ‘t’ word. But their attempt at the elusive three-peat ended at the hands of the New York Giants in the NFC championship game. The Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in four seasons but couldn’t secure a trio of consecutive championships. The Denver Broncos won back-to-back titles, but the new Millennium brought a new name on the trophy in January 2000, as the St. Louis Rams scaled Pro Football’s mountain. The New England Patriots achieved almost everything the game has to offer over twenty years. Everything except for three straight crowns, as the Steelers replaced them as NFL champions.
Eight franchises who are among the NFL’s greatest-ever teams. All eight failed to get their name etched on the trophy for a third consecutive time. It’s been nearly twenty years since the Patriots failed in the most recent attempt. Now, the Chiefs set out on the same quest, as the journey to Super Bowl LIX begins.
In US election year, which NFL team will hold the Trump card? The polls have the Chiefs ahead, but if a week is a long time in politics, then five months is an eternity in a league that stands for Not for Long.
The trophy all 32 franchises are chasing is named after one of the NFL’s legendary figures. The man behind the Packers’ early dominance of the league, Vince Lombardi, remains one of the NFL’s greatest coaches. After he died in 1970, the NFL chose to immortalise him by naming its greatest prize in his honour. In contrast to many other cups in US sports, a new iteration of the Lombardi Trophy is cast each season, meaning the champions can permanently house it in their trophy cabinet. However, possession of the title of NFL champion has been much more fleeting, with 20 different franchises being able to lay claim to having been world champions.
If you want a city to host the NFL’s biggest party, where better than The Big Easy? This will be the eleventh time New Orleans has welcomed the Super Bowl and the eighth occasion that the city’s Louisiana Superdome — now renamed Caesars Superdome after Caesars Entertainment bought the naming rights — has hosted Super Sunday.
The last time the Super Bowl came to New Orleans, the Baltimore Ravens soared to victory, ending the San Francisco 49ers gold rush, 34-31, back in February 2013. Baltimore’s charge to the title was briefly halted when a local electrical issue caused a power outage, which stopped play for 34 minutes of the second half. Among its other Super Bowls, the Superdome saw the ‘85 Chicago Bears’ 46-10 mauling of the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XX. Another NFC powerhouse, the San Francisco 49ers, lassoed the Denver Broncos 55-10 four years later. Unsurprisingly, in a city associated with black magic, New Orleans’ Super Bowls have delivered some tales of the unexpected moments. It has seen the only time a defensive player won the Most Valuable Player Award — well, two co-winners to be exact — a massive upset in the Patriots’ win over the St. Louis Rams in February 2001, and play halted when the lights went out in the Blackout Bowl.
Gimme Shelter
The site of some of the city’s happiest moments, in 2005, the Superdome was front and centre during New Orleans’ darkest hour. Hurricane Katrina struck the Louisiana area on August 29th with devastating consequences. At one point, an estimated 30,000 people sought refuge in this “shelter of last resort.” Despite playing a massive part in assuring the safety of so many Louisiana natives, the resulting damage caused to the Superdome led to speculation that it would have to be demolished. However, after an estimated $185 million worth of repair work it was able to host the hometown Saints’ season-opener in 2006.
What happened in Vegas
In February, it was Las Vegas’ turn to host Super Sunday, pitting the AFC champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, against the NFC conference winners, the San Francisco 49ers. Defense dominated the early exchanges during a scoreless first quarter. Early in the second period, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy aired the ball out, and only a last-gasp effort from Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie denied San Fran wide receiver Deebo Samuel the game’s opening touchdown. Rookie kicker Jake Moody wrote his name in the Super Bowl history books, as his 55-yard field goal — the longest in Super Sunday history — put the NFC champs in front. The Chiefs star quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, connected with Mecole Hardman for a huge completion, but a red zone fumble by Isiah Pacheco meant that KC came up empty. After an exchange of punts, a trick play created the game’s first touchdown as Purdy’s lateral pass to Jauan Jennings saw the wide receiver throw it back across the field to running back Christian McCaffrey, who took it to the house. Trailing by ten points with time running out in the first half, the Chiefs win proved that the race isn’t always to the swift.
KC converted on third-and-9 and third-and-2 before an Arik Armstead sack of Mahomes forced the AFC champions to settle for a field goal, reducing the deficit to 10-3 at the half. The second half nearly got off to a disastrous start for the men from Missouri as Isiah Pacheco lost the handle on Mahomes’ pitch. The running back got back on top of it, but on third down, the Chiefs’ triggerman’s throw found only San Francisco defender Ji’Ayir Brown. However, the Niners failed to cash in on the takeaway, and a long Chiefs’ drive ended with a Harrison Butker field goal. Both teams exchanged punts, but on the latter, the ball hit the foot of an unwitting 49ers’ special teams player, and the AFC champions recovered the live ball. They wasted no time cashing in as Mahomes hit wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the next play to give the Chiefs their first lead of the game, 13-10.
In the fourth quarter, although Purdy overthrew Deebo Samuel in the endzone, a George Kittle catch converted a fourth-and-3, and two plays later, Jennings caught a touchdown to put the men from the West Coast back on top. It should have been a four-point lead, but kicker Moody’s extra point was blocked. Trailing by three, the Chiefs marched down the field, but their red zone possession yielded just a Butker field goal, making it 16 apiece.
With the game clock under five minutes, the Niners had the ball, and a long drive put them in a position to secure the go-ahead score and run down the clock while leaving little or no time for a response. They were in long field goal range on third-and-4 on the Chiefs’ 35-yard line. A KC blitz forced an incompletion. However, Moody went some way to redeem himself by booting a 53-yard field goal with just 1:53 remaining. In field goal range, Kansas City faced third-and-7 with just 16 ticks left. Mahomes hit star tight end Travis Kelce for the first down. The triggerman only just managed to collect an errant snap on the next play and couldn’t repeat the dose to his favourite target, and with six seconds remaining, Butker’s boot sent the Super Bowl into an extra period for only the third time.
Jackpot, Kansas City
San Fran’s first possession in overtime looked set to be a three-and-out, but a defensive holding penalty gave them a fresh set of downs. Having reached the nine-yard line, on third-and-4, Jennings had got himself open, but Chiefs star defensive lineman, Chris Jones, made Purdy rush the throw, and the chance was gone. The 49ers had to settle for another Moody field goal, meaning Kansas City could win the game with a touchdown. They failed to convert third-and-1 and had to go for it on fourth down. Cometh the hour, cometh the man, and Mahomes called his own number, scrambling for a first down. Then, on third and less than a yard, another Mahomes’ scramble took the reigning champions to within thirteen yards of glory. Kelce’s catch brought a new set of downs, and Mahomes found Hardman in the endzone to seal a dramatic 25-22 win.
Caught in the Draft
To say that offensive players dominated the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft would be an understatement of the size of some of the mammoth offensive linemen selected.
The first defensive player selected didn’t come off the board until the 15th pick. Before this year’s renewal, the longest wait for a defensive player to hear their name called occurred in 2021 when the first defender taken went eighth overall.
NFL teams go on the offensive
A record-equalling six quarterbacks were selected in round one, with seven wide receivers — the joint-most at that position, along with 2004 — and no less than eight offensive tackles. Twenty-three of the first 32 picks were on the offensive side of the ball — the previous record had been 19. Pre-draft, the proliferation of players at these three marquee positions had been predicted, but not on this unprecedented scale.
In addition to strengthening through the draft, NFL teams can fortify their rosters by signing free-agent players or via agreeing trades with their competitors. Franchises are somewhat wary of committing to blockbuster trades, a fear that can be traced back to the 1989 Herschel Walker deal. Then, the Minnesota Vikings appeared on the cusp of becoming Super Bowl champions and saw the game’s pre-eminent running back as the missing piece in their championship jigsaw. They mortgaged their future to sign the former Georgia Bulldog, sending the Dallas Cowboys a slew of draft picks and veteran players as compensation — which ended up being six picks in the top two rounds of the draft. Walker never hit his stride in the Twin Cities, while Dallas used the draft collateral to select several cornerstones of a dynasty that won three Super Bowls in four seasons. The Vikings are still seeking their first Super Bowl crown.
Each NFL franchise must comply with the league’s salary cap. While it might seem that an annual player wage bill of $255.4M is very generous, the salaries commanded by the league’s top performers and the need to fill out a roster of 53 active players means that teams are constantly battling to balance the books. The cap has been instituted to help ensure one of the NFL’s watchwords: parity. On any given Sunday — or Thursday, Saturday, or Monday in the modern NFL — any team should be capable of defeating any other on the (level playing) field. To some extent, the league has achieved its aim, given the transient nature of success in the National Football League.
Rees-Lightning
While drafting the cream of College Football talent and signing free agents is how most of the league’s rosters get filled, when it comes to widening the league’s talent pool, the NFL is keen to cast its net as wide as possible. In 2017, it introduced its International Player Pathway Program — though its earliest international initiatives date back to 2004. Promising players from outside North America are assigned to the practice squads of NFL teams. Among the hopefuls looking to get themselves a new career in the NFL is former Wales Rugby Union star Louis Rees-Zammit. The erstwhile British and Irish Lion looked to have landed on his feet — not only was he signed to a three-year contract by the Super Bowl champions — the Kansas City Chiefs — but their depth at running back isn’t the strongest area of their squad, improving his chances of making their final 53-man roster. However, the speedy star failed to make the cut in Missouri. Consequently, he has had a change of team — having been snapped up by the Jacksonville Jaguars — and a change of position, as the Jags see him as a wide receiver.
It’s all kicking off
This year’s two most prominent rule changes involve new kick-off protocols and a desire to eradicate hip-drop tackles. One unintentional side effect of these law changes might be a slight increase in scoring. The new method of starting/restarting play will take some getting used to. While the kicker boots the ball from his own 35-yard line in the usual fashion, opposing teams line up five yards apart on the receiving team’s side of the 50. The kick-off has become somewhat neutered in recent years with an understandable desire to ensure player safety. This new means of restarting the game is aimed at making it an active and dynamic part of the sport once more. A hip-drop tackle is a two-handed tackle in which the tackler lowers his hips and lands with his body weight on an opponent’s leg at knee level or below. Given the number of injuries directly attributed to this sort of play, the league is keen to stamp it out.
London Calling
The NFL increased the number of teams included in the playoffs from 12 to 14, with effect from 2020, and a year later, the number of regular season games that each franchise plays was upped from 16 to 17. Not only is the road to the Super Bowl longer than in the past, but for many teams, it will take a more scenic route. London will host three NFL regular season games again this season — one at Wembley and two at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, keeping hopes alive that London may one day be home to an NFL franchise. But as fans of the other type of Football know only too well, you never write off the Germans. Having not held a regular season game until two years ago, Germany will host another match this season — between the New York Giants and the Carolina Panthers — at Munich’s Allianz Arena. In 2024, the NFL is planting its flag in South America for the first time. São Paulo’s Neo Química Arena will host the Week 1 clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The NFL has been divided into two Conferences since the merger of the AFL and NFL in 1970. Since 2002, the league has comprised 32 franchises, and both the AFC and NFC conferences have been divided into four divisions, each containing four teams. We begin our look at each of these divisions with the AFC East, home to the Buffalo Bills, who have been knocking on the door of the Super Bowl in recent seasons, a New York Jets squad that found themselves grounded by a disastrous injury last season, the free-scoring Miami Dolphins, and the once-mighty New England Patriots.
AFC East
McDermott’s mob still have the Bills Mafia believing
The Buffalo Bills finished sixth in scoring offense and fourth in scoring defense last year as they clinched a fourth-straight AFC East title. They were just 6-6 before their Bye Week before rattling off five straight wins to finish the regular season. Playoff games — especially road playoff matches — have been the issue. In recent years, they are 5-6 in the postseason, but all five wins were at Highmark Stadium. For the third time in four seasons, the men from Western New York saw their season end at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, this time by a 27-24 scoreline.
Advanced metrics suggest that Buffalo played even better than their 11-6 record last season. A helpful metric for quantifying a team’s performances beyond simple wins and losses is FTNFantasy.com’s DVOA ratings. These Defense-adjusted Value Over Average numbers attempt to break down every play to provide comparative ratings, and last year’s raw numbers put Buffalo third in the league with a DVOA of 24.2%. The Bills were unfortunate in a Week 12 game which saw them lose to Philadelphia after the Eagles kicked a 59-yard game-tying field goal and went on to win the match in overtime. On the flip side, Buffalo has a large amount of money tied up in players who are no longer with the franchise — this is termed dead money — with $61.2 million of their salary cap money being unavailable to them.
As everyone knows, the Bills always need to be paid. When Buffalo couldn’t afford to keep cornerback Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer, both left town, while they traded wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Texans. They lost seven players who played 50%+ of snaps last season, including their entire starting secondary from Week 1 last year.
With Diggs’ departure, the Bills’ main weakness is arguably wide receiver, and the losses in their defensive backfield mean that unit will not be as dominant as it once was.
Quarterback Josh Allen finished fourth in the league with 4,306 yards passing and led the NFL with 44 total touchdowns. In doing so, he became the first player in league history with three seasons with at least 35 passing touchdowns and five or more rushing scores. He even eclipsed Patrick Mahomes as Pro Football Focus’ top-rated quarterback.
2021 first-round pick Gregory Rousseau had 18 quarterback hits and 12 tackles for loss last season from his left defensive end spot. The Bills missed linebacker Matt Milano after the 2022 First-Team All-Pro suffered a season-ending leg fracture in Week 5. A fresh injury blow for the eighth-year man will likely rule him out for at least a significant part of this campaign. Von Miller is no stranger to serious injury, but when fit, the MVP of Super Bowl L is another elite player. The eight-time Pro Bowl edge rusher was selected to the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team.
Cornerback Taron Johnson made Second-Team All-Pro last season, and the elite slot corner was rewarded with a three-year contract extension. Despite the Bills being Rasul Douglas’ seventh team since being drafted in 2017, adding the cornerback before the trade deadline looks like a good bit of business from the Bills’ front office. He won Super Bowl LII with Philadelphia and has become an elite performer.
Entering his eighth season at the helm of the Bills, head coach Sean McDermott has built a 78–47 overall record, but his team’s performances in the postseason needs addressing. The midseason change of offensive coordinator during last season didn’t have the desired effect. With Ken Dorsey in the role, the Bills averaged 6.1 yards per play. With Joe Brady at the helm, this shrunk to 5.4 YPP. They will likely use more two-tight-end sets in 2024 — they couldn’t do this as much last year due to injuries. Nevertheless, Dalton Kincaid fitted in nicely with 673 receiving yards on 73 receptions as a rookie, and he and Dawson Knox are likely to be on the field together more in 2024.
The Bills face a more demanding schedule this year than in 2023. Last season, their opponents won 136 games. Looking at the season win totals for Buffalo’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 148.5 matches.
While Kansas City has regularly halted Buffalo’s charge to the Super Bowl in recent seasons, the men from Western New York remain a force to be reckoned with in the regular season. Some Bills fans — colloquially known as the Bills Mafia — complained when they reached the Super Bowl for the fourth consecutive year in the nineties, fearing they would witness their team receive another Super Sunday shellacking. It’s been thirty years since their last appearance on the biggest stage, and those same supporters would give anything to be back in the title game again.
Dolphins’ offense continues to make a big splash
After an electrifying 9-3 start, which included hanging 70 on Denver, the Miami Dolphins lost three of their last five matches. They still made the postseason; however, in the playoffs, conditions in Kansas City weren’t in their favour. The temperature gauge showed minus twenty degrees Celcius — made even colder by wind gusts of up to 27 miles per hour. It was the fourth-coldest game in NFL history, and the Dolphins floundered, losing 26-7. One fan held a sign at Arrowhead Stadium that read: “Dolphins don’t belong in the snow.” Talk about freezing on the big occasion.
Following five seasons in the playoff wilderness, Miami has made the postseason in the past two years but has been one-and-done on both occasions, extending a playoff drought that goes back to 2000. They haven’t won the AFC East title since 2008.
In 2023, the Dolphins beat up on the league’s poorer teams, coasting to a 10-1 record. However, they went 1-6 against playoff teams last year, losing those games by an average of 18.7 points.
A busy off-season saw defensive tackle Christian Wilkins swap South Beach for Sin City and two top-notch defensive backs arrive, Kendall Fuller and Jordan Poyer.
Miami’s offense led the league, averaging a huge 401.3 yards per game last season. The Dolphins should rule the airways above Hard Rock Stadium. They possess arguably the league’s best wide receiving pairing and its foremost secondary. However, the Dolphins’ tight end group were the only positional group in the league not to record a receiving touchdown last year.
Tyreek Hill led the NFL in receiving yards (1,799) and touchdowns (13). He is one of the rare NFL players who can boast a 99 rating in the Madden computer game. The hugely successful game franchise has become so advanced that the highly intricate metrics used to compile these player ratings would put some of the teams’ scouting departments to shame. Opposite Hill, Jaylen Waddle has posted three straight seasons with 1,000 yards receiving since the Dolphins took him with the sixth overall pick in 2021.
The fifth player taken in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua Tagovailoa led the league in yards passing in 2023 and earned his first Pro Bowl nod. This followed a season in 2022 where he was the NFL’s Passer Rating leader. In a year when the Dolphins monopolised many of the league’s offensive categories, running back Raheem Mostert finished 2023 as the NFL’s rushing touchdowns leader. He also made his first all-star game appearance. The Dolphins are his eighth team since 2015. It looked as though Terron Armstead might play his entire career in New Orleans, but after nine seasons in The Big Easy, Miami signed the left tackle as a free agent. He has been voted to the Pro Bowl in both seasons since his move to Florida, and he is a five-time all-star.
Though not quite at the elite level yet, De’Von Achane graded out as Pro Football Focus’ number-one halfback as a rookie. According to the same website, Connor Williams was the second-best center in Football last season.
Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a Pro Bowler in the past seven seasons. He won Super Bowl LVI during his stint with the Rams and was the fifth overall draft pick back in 2016. Canadian-born Jevon Holland finished last season ranked third among safeties by Pro Football Focus. Two new additions complete the Dolphins’ secondary and will make it the league’s best coverage unit. A Super Bowl winner from his days in Kansas City, cornerback Kendall Fuller finished ninth in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage rankings last season and is an elite performer. As is safety Jordan Poyer, who was named First-Team All-Pro in 2021.
Unsurprisingly, Miami prioritised defense in the recent draft, making Chop Robinson, a linebacker from Penn State, their first-round selection. He is very much a development project, but existing injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips will increase his playing time during his rookie season.
Head coach Mike McDaniel has undoubtedly brought the best out of Tua, who has thrown for at least 25 touchdowns in each of the two seasons the former 49ers offensive coordinator has been in Miami. Those two campaigns have seen McDaniel’s team post a 20-16 record.
Given that the Dolphins struggle outside their natural warm habitat, it’s unfortunate that this year’s schedule sees them face trips to frigid Cleveland and New York to close out the season. The weather is unlikely to be too hospitable in Green Bay on November 28th, either.
Things look settled on offense, with Tua inking a $212M contract extension. The defense could see as many as seven new starters on opening day under a new defensive coordinator. These changes could take some time to bed in. Unable to survive in the snow last January, the forecast still looks promising for the 2024 Dolphins.
Looking For A New England
In 2023, the New England Patriots were a study in offensive futility. In one stretch, the defense gave up ten or fewer points in three games, and the Pats lost all three matches — the last time that happened was with the 1938 Chicago Cardinals. New England has failed to make the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, and consequently, head coach Bill Belichick will not be on the Patriots’ sideline for the first time since 1999.
While protecting the ball is a skill, turnovers tend to be somewhat random, and results in that category aren’t replicated year-on-year. New England was unlucky with turnovers in 2023, finishing the season with a turnover differential of -11 and regression in this area should see more wins. FTN Fantasy’s Adjusted Games Lost calculates the number of injuries a team suffers and the importance of those on the injury list. Their AGL metric for the Patriots in 2023 was 128, nearly 60 games above the league average and the second-highest mark in the NFL, suggesting they were unlucky with injuries in their last campaign.
The off-season saw the Pats send quarterback Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a sixth-round pick while signing fellow passer Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $8M contract. They also added talented safety Jabrill Peppers as a free agent.
In terms of strengths and weaknesses, the six-time Super Bowl winner’s only strengths are their linebacking corps and secondary. Overall, the defense wasn’t bad, finishing third in yards per play allowed. However, the offense’s 13.9 points per game was tied for last in the league, and no Patriot receiver recorded 600 yards last season.
It won’t be surprising to learn that New England’s top three performers are all on defense. The Pats will be glad they prised edge rusher Matthew Judon from the Ravens in 2021. Four times a Pro Bowler, injuries restricted him to just two starts last term. Cornerback Jonathan Jones has been with the franchise long enough to remember the good old days and is a two-time Super Bowl champion (LI, LIII). He snagged four interceptions last season in the first year of a two-year deal. The Browns’ first-round pick in 2017, Jabrill Peppers’ signing will upgrade the free safety position.
In a draft full of highly-rated quarterbacks and having a desperate need in that area, the Patriots selected Drake Maye third overall, but he will be a work in progress. The youngster has elite arm talent but lacks footwork.
The task of trying to replace the greatest head coach in NFL history falls to one of New England’s former players: Jerod Mayo. He has spent the past five years as the team’s Inside linebackers coach.
Mayo’s men face a brutal early-season schedule, beginning in Cincinnati. The home game against Seattle is the least arduous early-season encounter, but then they visit the New York Jets before travelling coast-to-coast to face the NFC champions, San Francisco. Then it’s back to the East Coast as they host Miami before entertaining another 2023 playoff team, Houston. Next on deck is a trip to Jacksonville before a home meeting with the Jets.
The rest of the AFC — indeed, the rest of the NFL — has been desperate to see the back of the great Bill Belichick. After presiding over twenty years of unprecedented success, the great man has departed, leaving much uncertainty behind. It’s a challenge Mayo will relish, but setting the table for a more significant improvement in future seasons may be the best he can hope for.
Rodgers and hammer time at the Met?
Four plays.
That’s how long Aaron Rodgers’ first season in The Big Apple lasted. The quarterback charged with guiding the New York Jets franchise back to the big time tore his Achilles tendon and was lost for the year. The Jets were the team featured on HBO’s docuseries Hard Knocks last year. How prescient that proved to be.
The Jets have the NFL’s longest playoff drought, having missed the postseason for the 13th straight season last year. The Jets are amid the longest playoff drought across the four major US sports; next is Ice Hockey’s Buffalo Sabres, with 12 years in the playoff wilderness. The last time they won the AFC East was 2002.
4-3 at one stage last year, a five-game skid ended their playoff hopes. If one play summed up the Jets’ 2023 season, it was the Hail Mary that turned, not into a Touchdown for the J-E-T-S but was returned for a pick 6 in their Black Friday game against the Dolphins.
The men from MetLife Stadium added left tackle Tyron Smith and edge rusher Haason Reddick in the off-season. But having Rodgers back is like having a new player. The departed edge rushers Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers had 125 quarterback pressures last season.
Scoring has been a long-term problem. In each of the past six seasons, the Jets have not covered their team points total in the majority of their games. The offensive line was graded as second-worst in the league by Pro Football Focus, and their wide receiver group finished in the league’s bottom three in receptions, yards, and touchdowns — though there is some hope for improvement there, with the addition of ex-Charger Mike Williams.
Twice a First-Team All-Pro, left tackle Tyron Smith made the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team. A first-round pick in 2011, he is a significant addition to the Jets. New York’s receiving corps looks much improved, having been a bit of a concern in recent seasons. The tenth overall pick in 2022, Garrett Wilson was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he added a second season with 1,000 yards receiving last year. Lining up on the other side will be Mike Williams, who has twice gone over 1,000 yards receiving since being selected seventh overall by the Chargers in 2017. But he will be limited early in the season as he recuperates from a torn ACL. Sadly, the injury bug has been a recurring theme — he has missed 27 games in seven seasons.
En route to his second-straight Pro Bowl, Quinnen Williams graded as Pro Football Focus’ third-top interior defender. Five times a Pro Bowler, C. J. Mosley has started every Jets’ game over the past two seasons. After failing to convince in the four years after the Arizona Cardinals made him the 17th player taken in the 2017 NFL Draft, Haason Reddick has hit his stride in recent seasons. His sack total has been in double-digits in the past four years, and he has earned a trip to the Pro Bowl in the past two. He logged 66 quarterback pressures last season.
The Jets have never had any reason to regret using the fourth overall pick in 2022 on Sauce Gardner. The third-highest rated cornerback in Pro Football Focus’ grades last year, he has been a First-Team All-Pro in both NFL seasons. On the other side, D. J. Reed has become a top-notch performer.
Olu Fashanu, who New York made the eleventh pick in the draft, didn’t allow a quarterback hit, let alone a sack, in 365 pass-blocking attempts last term. However, his run-blocking technique needs work.
Having made his name as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator, Robert Saleh enters his fourth season as the Jets’ head coach with an 18–33 lifetime record. The Jets expected plenty of turbulence during the early part of his tenure, but they will need to make an ascent if he is to get a fifth year in charge.
The number of prime-time games a team is afforded gives an idea of how the league regards them, as the NFL wants to draw in their biggest audiences with these marquee fixtures. The Jets have been given the maximum number of six nationally-televised games, and the league can adjust prime-time matchups later in the season with flexible scheduling, so they might be in front of a national TV audience more than half a dozen times. The early-season schedule looks very favourable. Although they travel to San Francisco in Week 1, opening weekend is often the best time to face a team suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. Their next four games against Tennessee, New England, Denver, and Minnesota should ensure a swift ascent. However, things get more challenging as the season wears on, and they have the road trip to Buffalo and both matches with Miami in the last five weeks. New York faces the dreaded three games in 11 days, playing on Monday Night Football, then on a Sunday, before playing on Thursday night, between Week 1 and Week 3.
Not to mix transport metaphors, but the Jets hope that Rodgers’ return will be a rising tide that lifts all boats. Even somewhat passed his best, having turned 40, the four-time league MVP will represent a significant upgrade on the journeymen the Jets put on the field at quarterback last season. Everything is prime time in New York, and the J-E-T-S will be front and centre with Rodgers’ return in the city that never sleeps. When it comes to Super Bowl contenders, no one will be sleeping on the Jets.
AFC North
Baltimore faltered when it came down to The Wire
There was a lot to like about the 2023 Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore had the league’s top-ranked defense and its fourth–best offense last term en route to securing the AFC North crown for the first time since 2019 — a division in which the four teams went 31-13 against teams from other divisions. The Ravens won 10 of their last 12 matches, and their 33-19 win in San Francisco against the eventual NFC champions was the best performance of any team during the regular season.
They have made the playoffs in five of the past six seasons, and last year the men from Maryland hosted the AFC championship game for the first time in the team’s history. However, they lost that encounter 17-10 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Baltimore was slightly fortunate with turnovers last season, and their +12 differential in this area will be tough to repeat.
A busy off-season has seen eight players depart who played at least 40% of snaps last term. This included losing three starters along their offensive line. Long a player who seemed to fit the Ravens’ blue-collar mould, running back Derrick Henry signed a two-year $16M deal.
The defense led the league in scoring, sacks, and takeaways — the first team to manage this feat since the merger. However, those offensive line deletions could be a real issue as quarterback Lamar Jackson finished 18th in yards per attempt on pass attempts where he had less than two and a half seconds to throw last season. The Ravens’ triggerman struggles with Cover Zero coverage, and teams will blitz him heavily again this season.
Baltimore remains arguably the most talented team in the league, with no fewer than 13 elite players. After a career-high 3,678 yards passing, Lamar Jackson won his second league MVP award. Having started more than 12 games for the first time in three seasons, the seventh-year man was rated third among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus.
Running back Derrick Henry joins a team that already led the league with 156.5 rushing yards per game. According to Pro Football Focus last season, he was the third-ranked halfback and was the NFL’s Offensive Player Of The Year in 2020. The four-time Pro Bowler was the league’s Rushing Leader in 2019 and 2020. Selecting Zay Flowers in round one of the 2023 NFL Draft looks like a fine decision, as he set the Ravens’ franchise rookie record for most receptions and yards receiving last season. Mark Andrews was graded as the third-best tight end in the league (per Pro Football Focus) and is a three-time Pro Bowler.
Allowing these skill position players to flourish is former sixth overall pick Ronnie Stanley. The left tackle made the Pro Bowl in 2019. In his second year after the Ravens made him their first-round pick, Tyler Linderbaum was chosen for his first Pro Bowl at center.
On the other side of the ball, defensive tackle Justin Madubuike was elected to his first Pro Bowl last year. Michael Pierce started every regular season game last term, and his strong play earned the nose tackle a two-year contract extension. The Ravens traded for linebacker Roquan Smith midway through the 2022 season, and he significantly improved their ability to stop the run while being highly effective in coverage. A former first-round draft pick of the Bears, Smith was named First-Team All-Pro in the past two seasons.
In the secondary, Marlon Humphrey missed time with a foot injury last year, preventing him from adding to his three Pro Bowl appearances. The Ravens have done well with their high draft picks in the secondary. As well as Humphrey, they selected Kyle Hamilton in round one in 2022, and he repaid them, earning First-Team All-Pro honours last year. At free safety, Marcus Williams will be hoping for a happy return to the Superdome, having spent five years with the New Orleans Saints. He can’t be far away from Pro Bowl recognition.
Baltimore has the NFL’s best-ever kicker in Justin Tucker. A member of the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team, he is the most accurate kicker in league history, with a success rate of 90.2%. He also owns the record for the NFL’s longest successful field goal, having made a 66-yarder.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens’ first-round draft pick, Nate Wiggins, was the only College cornerback to allow under 180 passing yards and a less than 50% completion percentage while at Clemson last year.
In 16 years, John Harbaugh has only posted one year with less than eight wins and owns a 172–109 lifetime record. The head coach masterminded Baltimore’s triumph in Super Bowl XLVII.
Looking at the Ravens’ slate of games for the coming season, they open with Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo, and Cincinnati in the first five weeks, with Las Vegas at home providing the only slight rest bite. At least Baltimore will enjoy an advantage of 16 days of net rest over their opponents in 2024.
With the world champions on deck, the Ravens won’t have long to wait for an examination of their Super Bowl credentials. Having missed out in Tennessee, King Henry will be hoping to be part of Baltimore’s Super Bowl coronation. New Orleans was a happy hunting ground for the Ravens the last time the Super Bowl came to town. Can they put the lights out in The Big Easy again?
Woes against divisional foes
Despite missing the playoffs last year, the Cincinnati Bengals have turned things around in recent times. In the 53 seasons before 2021, they had only won five playoff games, but they have matched that number over the past three years. Last season, a slow start offensively saw the Bengals post only 49 points in their opening four games. They recovered, but their chances of adding to that postseason wins total were dealt a severe blow when quarterback Joe Burrow missed the last seven games last season with a wrist injury.
Divisional matches cost the Bengals last year. They posted a 1-5 record against AFC North foes while going 8-3 outside the division, and they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Digging a little deeper, various advanced metrics suggest Cincinnati was fortunate to rack up nine wins last season. One method for assessing how well teams really played in the previous campaign is Pythagorean Wins. Adapted from Baseball, this metric uses a team’s points differential to decipher how many games they should have won in the previous year. Pythagorean Wins point to their play being worth just 7.44 victories, and the Bengals were lucky that they finished +10 in turnover differential. Cincinnati fans who saw their starting quarterback struggle with injuries might disagree with this, but their Adjusted Starts Lost were just 28.9 in 2023, approximately 40 below the league average. They are unlikely to have such a clean bill of health this year.
The front office had some tough decisions to make in the off-season and essentially had to decide between keeping running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tee Higgins. They opted for the latter, and the running back joined the Texans. Run stuffer D. J. Reader and shutdown corner Chidobe Awuzie leave two significant gaps to fill after their off-season departures.
Cincy struggled against the run in 2023 — the 4.7 yards per carry their defense surrendered was the third-most in the league.
Of quarterbacks with a minimum of 1,500 passing attempts, Joe Burrow’s 98.6 career Passer Rating is the seventh-highest of all time. The first player selected in 2020, he earned Pro Bowl honours two years later. Despite the triggerman’s absence, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase had a career-high 100 receptions last year and is a three-time Pro Bowler. Before missing time last year through injury, Tee Higgins had reached the 1,000-yard receiving plateau in both the previous seasons.
The Bengals will be offensive tackle Trent Brown’s fifth team in ten seasons. He was a Pro Bowler in 2019 and won a Super Bowl ring during his time with the Patriots.
Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has been elected to the Pro Bowl in the past three seasons, and he finished the year with a career-high tally of 17 1/2 sacks.
Georgia’s offensive tackle, Amarius Mims, was the Bengals’ first-round pick in April’s draft and fills a critical need. Injuries have been an issue, but there is no doubt about his potential.
A 42–46–1 lifetime record doesn’t tell the whole story for head coach Zac Taylor. The team he inherited had been a mess for most of the previous two decades, and he took the franchise to within less than two minutes of becoming world champions in Super Bowl LVI.
Compared to 2023, the Bengals have caught a break with their 2024 schedule. Last season, their opponents won 166 games — the toughest slate of games any team faced. Fourteen franchises made the 2023 playoffs — and Cincy played 11 of them. Looking at the season win totals for Cincinnati’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 138 matches. One concerning aspect of Cincy’s slate of games is that they have to play three games in eleven days. After travelling to Dallas on Monday Night Football, they play at Tennessee on Sunday before welcoming Cleveland to The Jungle on Thursday Night Football.
The fact that both Higgins and Hendrickson have asked to be traded in recent months could cause Cincinnati problems. Also, their other outstanding wideout is chasing a new contract. Nevertheless, the Bengals retain the nucleus of a squad that reached the Super Bowl. When Burrow was healthy, they won four out of five games last year, including wins over Buffalo and San Francisco. Keeping Burrow healthy should see the Bengals dig their way out of the AFC North’s basement.
No mistaking an Erie sense of confidence
Last term, the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs for only the second time in 21 seasons, before suffering a 45-14 reversal to the Houston Texans. The Kardiac Kids are back. The Browns channelled the spirit of the 1980 Cleveland squad by going 5-0 in games decided by three points or less, including a couple of late, late shows to defeat the Colts and the Bears. The modern history of the Browns has been a troubled one. As one fan’s sign read, the franchise has been: “rebuilding since 1964”. For much of that time, one of the league’s oldest franchises has been known as The Mistake by the Lake.
In 2023, the Browns were quite unlucky with injuries: FTN Fantasy’s Adjusted Games Lost metric awarded them 108 games lost, the league’s highest, nearly 40 above the NFL average. However, they were fortunate that opposing kickers had only a 71% field goal success rate.
Their main off-season moves saw them add wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and linebacker Jordan Hicks.
In 2023, the Browns’ stingy defense led the league by allowing just 270.2 yards per game.
Nick Chubb remains an elite running back, with four Pro Bowl appearances on his CV, though ACL and MCL damage will see him sit out the early games this season. Wide receiver Amari Cooper can boast one more Pro Bowl appearance than that. David Njoku’s career-high 822 yards was enough to earn the tight end a first Pro Bowl spot. He finished sixth among NFL tight ends in yards per route run.
But the Browns also excel with the interior of the offensive line. There isn’t a better pair of guards than Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller in the league. Bitonio has been elected First-Team All-Pro twice, while Wyatt Teller has made the past three Pro Bowls.
In a league full of elite edge defenders, Myles Garrett topped the Pro Football Focus list at that position in 2023. The first overall pick in the draft in 2017, he was voted NFL Defensive Player Of The Year and made First-Team All-Pro for the third time. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah gained deserved Pro Bowl recognition after delivering his best season yet, with 101 combined tackles and six passes defensed.
Since Cleveland took him with the fourth overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Denzel Ward has been voted to the Pro Bowl on three occasions. Injuries have been the only issue for the shutdown corner, as he hasn’t started more than 15 games in any of his six seasons with the Browns. Cleveland used another top pick on Greg Newsome II three years later to pair him with Ward. He, too, is a top-class performer but an injury-prone one, as he has also failed to suit up for more than 15 games in any of his three seasons.
Kevin Stefanski has been anointed NFL Coach Of The Year twice and displays excellent in-game decision-making. He has posted a 38–32 lifetime record in Ohio.
The Browns’ schedule includes a Bye Week in Week 10, just about the optimum time.
Cleveland will be shelling out more money to their 2024 quarterbacks than any team in league history. Yet, the recipient of most of those dollars, Deshaun Watson, has only suited up for 12 of a possible 34 games over the past two seasons owing to injuries and a suspension. Fans in Believeland must hope he can stay on the field, that their secondary stays fit, and that Nick Chubb returns from his injury at his previous level.
Steeling themselves for a battle
Somehow, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin’s record of never having had a losing season in his 17 years as a head coach remains intact, as the Steelers made the playoffs for the third time in four seasons.
The men from the Steel City became only the 34th team in NFL history to be outgained in each of their first eight games. They were only the fifth team ever to win at least ten games with a point differential of -20 or worse. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised, as no one finds a way to win much better than Pittsburgh, who has won 31 of the 42 one-score games it has played since 2020.
They won three straight games to end the season and secure a postseason place, before being eliminated by Buffalo. For such a storied franchise, it’s surprising that Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016.
Given the numbers already mentioned, it is no shock that advanced metrics suggest that the Steelers were fortunate to end 2023 with ten wins. They were worth only 7.17 Pythagorean Wins and benefitted from a +11 turnover differential.
They signed quarterback Russell Wilson to a one-year, $1.2M contract while sending Chicago a conditional sixth-round pick for the rights to quarterback Justin Fields.
Their defense held up its end of the bargain, ranking sixth last year, and were particularly stout against the run. But their offense languished in 28th and, as a measure of their offensive woes, their 400-yard game against the Bengals in Week 12 was the first time they had topped that mark in 58 tries.
T. J. Watt has been breaking records since the Steelers made him the 30th pick in the 2017 Draft. He shares the record for most sacks in an NFL season and has led the league in sacks three times, which is an unequalled feat, including a league-leading 19 takedowns last season. The NFL Defensive Player Of The Year in 2021, he is a four-time First-Team All-Pro. It’s hard to garner many headlines across from Watt, but Cameron Heyward has been named First-Team All-Pro three times, as has free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Heyward delivered 3.4 pressures per game in 2022 but was slowed by pre-season groin surgery last term.
Patrick Queen unquestionably benefitted from playing alongside Roquan Smith as part of the Ravens’ linebacking corps. Nevertheless, the Steelers beat other teams to his signature after the former first-rounder made Second-Team All-Pro last season. Alex Highsmith’s sack total dropped from 14 1/2 to 7 last year, but he still finished thirteenth in the NFL in quarterback pressures in 2023 and remains an elite performer.
Tackle Troy Fautanu, who was taken 20th in the draft, fills a need for the Steelers, and brings great athleticism to the role.
In addition to his tremendous regular-season record, coach Tomlin led Pittsburgh to success in Super Bowl XLIII. Under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Steelers will likely run more play action and use increased two and three-tight end sets. On defense, they used Cover-3 — a zone defense featuring defensive backs each protecting deep thirds of the field — at the second-highest rate in the NFL last year.
Schedule-wise, their last eight games see them face division foes Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland twice, as well as heavyweights Kansas City and Philadelphia.
It’s difficult to say whether the addition of Russell Wilson will improve the offense. After all, he only averaged 5.8 yards per pass play during his two-year stint in Denver. As you’d expect from the team representing the blue-collar city of Pittsburgh, the Steelers will rely on an elite defense and lean heavily on the running game. Still, they will have to steel themselves for a real battle in arguably the league’s toughest division.
AFC South
Houston, we have lift-off
The list of quarterbacks that led the NFL in yards passing per game and passing touchdowns to interceptions ratio in a single season in the past 50 years: Joe Montana in 1989, Tom Brady in 2007, and Texans rookie C.J. Stroud in 2023.
Stroud racked up 279.9 yards passing per game and his 1% interception rate was the second-lowest among rookie passers since 1980, as the young signal caller enjoyed a remarkable first season.
The Houston Texans were only the fourth team since 1967 to boast the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. They won the AFC South for the first time since 2019, as C. J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans became only the third rookie quarterback and head coach tandem to win a playoff game since 1950.
Their improvement came down to winning the close games. Between 2020 and 2022 they were 5-18 in games decided by seven points or less. Last year, Houston was 7-3 in matches decided by seven or fewer. On the one hand, the Texans were lucky with turnovers, as they forced ten more than they allowed. On the other, FTN Fantasy’s Adjusted Games Lost metric points to them being unfortunate with injuries, as their 2023 total of 159.1 was the league’s highest and close to 90 above the league average.
The off-season saw wide receiver Stefon Diggs, running back Joe Mixon, and edge rusher Danielle Hunter arrive.
Strong drafts and off-season moves mean the Texans have few fundamental weaknesses. Although their running game was poor last season, they have taken a step towards addressing that issue.
Four-time Pro Bowler Laremy Tunsil is one of the league’s premier offensive tackles. The Texans’ other elite players all joined over the off-season. Joe Mixon compiled his fourth 1,000-yard season in Cincinnati before the 2021 Pro Bowler landed in Houston. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has topped the 1,000-yard plateau in his past six seasons and made the Pro Bowl in all four years in Buffalo.
On the other side of the ball, four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Danielle Hunter recorded a career-best 16 1/2 sacks in his final season in Minnesota. The Texans’ strong performances in recent drafts continued with 2022 third-overall pick Derek Stingley Jr. The cornerback picked off five passes last season. As part of a real football family, his grandfather played in the NFL, and his father played in the Arena Football League; he has the potential to be the best generation yet.
Highly touted as a potential future head coach after his stint as defensive coordinator in San Francisco — where he was the Assistant Coach of the Year in 2022 — DeMeco Ryans made a flying start in year one in the top job.
The Texans face a more demanding schedule this year than in 2023. Last season, their opponents won 137 games. Looking at the season win totals for Houston’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 150.5 matches.
In a state where everything is bigger and better, people aren’t easily impressed, But the Texans lassoed an unexpected playoff berth last year and will hope they can steer their way through the playoffs in 2024.
Indianapolis .500?
Last year, rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was 2-2 as a starter before succumbing to a season-ending shoulder injury, and the Indianapolis Colts missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season.
Indianapolis had a quiet off-season with minimal activity. Joe Flacco signed a $4.5M, one-year contract to serve as their backup quarterback.
Having invested considerable draft capital on it in recent years, the Colts’ offensive line is arguably their greatest strength.
The relationship between the Colts and star running back Jonathan Taylor was described as “broken” during the last off-season. Nevertheless, the 2021 First-Team All-Pro suited up for Indianapolis again in 2023. He racked up 741 yards rushing during ten regular season games and compiled 1,811 back in 2021. He has rushed for less than 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons but missed 13 games with injury. The son of an NFL player, Michael Pittman Jr topped 1,000 yards receiving for the second time in his four-year career, and the wide receiver snagged a career-high 109 passes in 2023. He finished fifth in the league with 109 receptions last year and was rewarded with a three-year deal worth $71.5M.
The sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft, left guard Quenton Nelson has made the Pro Bowl in each of his six seasons. Braden Smith anchors the Colts’ offensive line from his right tackle spot and has become an elite performer entering his seventh season.
In 2020, the Colts gave up a first-round pick when they traded for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. The three-time Pro Bowler has played in every game since his move to Indy and was rewarded with a $46M two-year contract extension. Indianapolis signed cornerback Kenny Moore II to a new three-year deal over the off-season, and the 2021 Pro Bowler is the star of their secondary.
Laiatu Latu, the 2023 Lombardi Award Winner as the nation’s top offensive or defensive lineman, led the FBS with 21 1/2 tackles for loss as a run defender, while effectively utilising his entire repertoire of pass-rush moves.
One of the NFL’s brightest young coaches, Shane Steichen, enters his second season in charge of Indy. Last year, the Colts were the league’s most up-tempo offense.
NFL players are creatures of habit, and the Colts will play every one of their 17 games on a traditional Sunday, with 15 in their familiar Eastern Time Zone. They do have four potentially cold-weather games and face some trickier opponents in the first half of the slate. However, the list of opponents at the tail end of the year is hardly murderers’ row: New England, Denver, Tennessee, the New York Giants, and Jacksonville.
Indianapolis suffered a blow with the news that edge rusher Samson Ebukam will likely miss the 2024 campaign after tearing his Achilles tendon. Given Richardson’s lack of playing time, the Colts’ performance with such an inexperienced young quarterback under center is highly volatile. His improvement could be significant, but for Indy, .500 or thereabouts is the likeliest outcome at the chequered flag of the 2024 race.
Can the Jags compete with the NFL’s high rollers?
The Jacksonville Jaguars stalled after an 8-3 start, dropping five of their last six games. They missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons, and for ten of the past thirteen years, they lost more close games than they won.
In 2022, the Jags took a gamble when they sent draft collateral to Atlanta for the rights to wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who had been suspended for violating the league’s policy on gambling. After just one full season in North Florida, they decided to fold, allowing the wideout to leave town. Tennessee sent a sixth-round selection to the Patriots for quarterback Mac Jones.
After missing the 2021 season through injury, both of Travis Etienne’s seasons since have seen him top 1,000 yards rushing. Christian Kirk has only started all 17 regular season games once during his six NFL seasons, but he posted 1,108 yards receiving that year. Although yet to reach the 1,000-yard receiving mark in a season, Evan Engram became only the eighth tight end in NFL history to register over 100 receptions in a season since the merger, as he fell just 37 yards short of 1,000 last season, earning a second trip to the Pro Bowl.
Though not yet in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence has responded to the pressure of being the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft with back-to-back 4,000-yard and 20+ touchdown seasons.
Josh Hines-Allen’s 17 1/2 sacks tied him for second in the league in 2023, and he was rewarded with a $150M contract over five years. The seventh pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, he made his second Pro Bowl last season. Foyesade Oluokun led the league in solo tackles for the second straight year and is an elite middle linebacker.
No receiver in the FBS caught more touchdowns than Brian Thomas Jr, who snagged 17 last year. He came through for LSU in the clutch, with six of those scores coming in the fourth quarter, tying the most since 2000.
Doug Pederson guided the Philadelphia Eagles to victory in Super Bowl LII, and the head coach owns a 65–56–1 lifetime record.
The Jaguars have caught a break with their 2024 schedule compared to 2023. Last season, their opponents won 154 games. Looking at the season win totals for Jacksonville’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 142 matches.
The Jaguars have posted back-to-back winning seasons, but only by the skin of their teeth. Given that the AFC South is far from the league’s strongest division, they remain playoff contenders. With Pederson and Lawrence at the helm, fans in Duval County have some cause for optimism, but Jacksonville remains one of four NFL franchises that have yet to play in a Super Bowl. Locals won’t thank me for saying it, but perhaps an (overseas) move might be the answer.
Hitting all the wrong notes in The Music City
The Tennessee Titans reached the postseason in all three years between 2019 and 2021. They have missed the playoffs over the past two seasons. Their six wins last year were their worst return since 2015.
Off-season addition, cornerback L’Jarius Sneed may become the best player on the team. Having seen running back Derrick Henry depart for the Ravens, they signed former Dallas running back Tony Pollard to a $21.8M contract over three years.
Opponents used quarterback Will Levis as a punchbag last year. A poor pass-blocking offensive line led to the rookie passer taking a hit on over a quarter of his dropbacks. On the other side of the ball, the Titans were 30th in pass defense last year.
A Pro Bowler in 2022, running back Tony Pollard topped 1,000 yards rushing for the second consecutive year. DeAndre Hopkins has made five Pro Bowl appearances and remains an elite wide receiver.
Jeffery Simmons has been named Second-Team All-Pro twice at his defensive tackle position since being taken by the Titans in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. L’Jarius Sneed is an elite cover man with two Super Bowl rings from his days in Kansas City. On the other side, a star in Dallas and Cincinnati, Chidobe Awuzie, must be close to a first Pro Bowl nod.
The Titans drafted offensive Tackle JC Latham, from Alabama, seventh overall. Pro Football Focus calculated that he allowed just two sacks in his 970 pass-blocking snaps in college. He possesses prototype size and speed but needs to reduce his penalty count.
After last season’s disappointment, Tennessee hired former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as their head coach. With Callahan in charge, they will likely use more 11 personnel formations — one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers.
Their lowly status means Tennessee will only have one prime-time game in 2024 — a Week 4 clash in Miami.
Despite a clutch of new additions, expectations for the Titans are low. King Henry has abdicated, and this is now Will Levis’ team. Making the playoffs is a longshot for Tennessee, but the Titans will be hoping that where there’s a Will, there’s a way.
AFC West
Broncos looking to buck the trend
The Denver Broncos won Super Bowl L but have not even made the playoffs since the confetti fell at Levi’s Stadium. They became the first team in league history to follow a win on Super Sunday by missing the playoffs for eight straight seasons. After a mid-season five-game win streak, they lost four of their last six games in 2023, condemning them to a seventh straight sub-.500 record.
Denver was fortunate to win eight games last season. Pythagorean Wins suggest they were only worth 6.77, and their raw DVOA figure of -11.9 (per FTN Fantasy) again suggests they were lucky to finish 8-9.
Since last season, Denver has parted ways with quarterback Russell Wilson, which meant taking an NFL record $85M cap hit. They sent Jerry Jeudy to the Browns for fifth and sixth-round picks. Perhaps a more significant loss is four-time Second-Team All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, who left for Atlanta in free agency.
On offense, their 39 catches and 362 yards receiving by tight ends were the lowest totals in the league last year. Teams gashed the Broncos’ D on the ground to the tune of 5.0 yards per carry allowed.
Center Quinn Meinerz is one of the NFL’s best (and best paid) at his position. Two places to his left, tackle Garett Bolles looked like a busted flush early in his career. He was a penalty machine in his first three seasons. But Denver has been rewarded for their perseverance, as their first-round pick in 2017 was named Second-Team All-Pro in 2020 and started all 17 games for the first time in 2023.
The team’s standout player is cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who earned Pro Bowl honours for the second straight season and was the ninth player selected in the 2021 NFL Draft.
The Broncos drafted 24-year-old quarterback Bo Nix as Wilson’s long-term replacement. He certainly has more experience than most quarterbacks taken in the draft, with an FBS-record 61 career starts under his belt. He was accurate, completing a college-record 77.4% of his passes last term. However, twenty-eight quarterbacks aged 24 have entered the league this century, and only one has made the Pro Bowl.
Head coach Sean Payton has always succeeded in winning at least seven games in a season over 16 campaigns. He guided the Saints to glory in Super Bowl XLIV and has an excellent 169-106 career lifetime record.
Since they gave legendary quarterback Peyton Manning a glorious send-off at the end of his storied career, winning seasons have been a rarity for the team from the city where the air is rare. There has been a real quarterback carousel since then. Nix has been installed as Denver’s first rookie quarterback to start on opening day since their Hall-of-Fame passer John Elway in 1983. The Broncos are running with their first-round quarterback and hoping Bo knows Football.
It’s hard to have reservations about the Chiefs
A repeat Super Bowl win looked hugely unlikely when the Kansas City Chiefs lost at home to the lowly Raiders on Christmas Day. Although they were 9-6 after that defeat and still likely to make the playoffs, that lacklustre performance — one of five losses in an eight-game span — hardly screamed back-to-back champions.
However, consecutive wins to round off the regular season were followed by a home win against Miami and the Chiefs’ usual Houdini acts to defeat Buffalo, Baltimore, and San Francisco en route to a fourth Lombardi Trophy. The foundation of their recent success has been the Chiefs’ domination of the AFC West, winning the division title in eight straight years. Six of their last seven playoff wins have been by one score, and they lifted their third Lombardi Trophy in five seasons.
Kansas City was unlucky with turnovers in 2023, conceding 11 more than they gained. However, KC avoided the injury bug, with an Adjusted Games Lost figure was 38.1 — approximately 30 below the league average.
Since last season, the Chiefs have signed wide receiver Marquise Brown to a one-year deal worth $7M. Chris Jones signed a new five-year contract worth $158.8M, but cornerback L’Jarius Sneed left for the Titans.
Although it was business as usual when it came to hoisting the trophy, what changed in 2023 was who did the heavy lifting to make this possible. Usually, a high-octane offense but a less impressive defense, the Chiefs’ fortunes flipped last season. They went under their team total in 76% of their games last term. Their 21.8 points per game was the lowest since Mahomes took the helm. On the other hand, they finished second in scoring defense, total defense, and sacks last season.
Graded second among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus, Patrick Mahomes’ 27 passing touchdowns last term were actually the second-fewest since he became a starter. Still, he ended the year with his third Super Bowl MVP Award. He is one of five members of the Madden 99 club. A Pro Bowler in each of his nine NFL seasons, Travis Kelce’s 984 receiving yards were his fewest since 2015. However, he still graded second among tight ends according to Pro Football Focus and is another Madden 99 alumnus, though he will turn 35 during the season. Maybe it’s the fact that he was overlooked by so many teams as a lowly seventh-round pick, but Isiah Pacheco continues to run angry. Despite missing four starts last term, he still racked up 935 yards rushing.
Left guard Joe Thuney has four Super Bowl rings from his time in New England and Kansas City and was voted to the Pro Bowl in the past two seasons. Next to him, center Creed Humphrey joined him at both the last two all-star games. A sixth-round pick in 2021, Trey Smith has outperformed that lowly status, making the 2021 PFWA All-Rookie Team and remaining one of the league’s best at his position since then.
Chris Jones certainly deserved his new deal after the defensive tackle was voted First-Team All-Pro for the second straight year. Cornerback Trent McDuffie was the Chiefs’ first-round pick in 2022 and was named First-Team All-Pro last term.
Xavier Worthy broke the NFL Scouting Combine record with his 4.21-second 40-yard dash time, and after trading up with Buffalo, the Chiefs added the speedster. He has the productivity to go with that blazing speed and was one of only three FBS players with over 2,750 receiving yards and at least 25 receiving touchdowns since 2021.
A part of the coaching trees of Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, affectionately known as Big Red, began his NFL head coaching career in Philadelphia. He spent 14 seasons there, leading the Eagles to a place in four consecutive NFC championship games, including taking them to Super Bowl XXXIX, where they lost to New England. Reid then took over the head coaching role in Kansas City, a position he has held for over a decade. He has guided the Chiefs to double-digit wins in 10 of his 11 years in charge. It is hard to believe that people used to say that Reid couldn’t win the big game — the 66-year-old has become the fourth coach in history to reach five Super Bowls. Since 2000, Andy Reid’s teams have gone over their season win total 75% of the time. Kansas City played more two-high safety formations than anyone else in the league but may lack the depth in that area to utilise that look as often in 2024.
KC will face a couple of opponents with revenge on their minds this season. On October 20th, we will see a Super Bowl rematch against the 49ers. Four weeks later, they face a Bills squad hell-bent on revenge.
History is against them retaining their title, but the Chiefs Kingdom will believe they can take the crown while they have Mahomes, Kelce, and Reid. A Swift return to the Super Bowl is not beyond their Wildest Dreams.
Raiders of the lost art?
The Las Vegas Raiders reached Super Bowl XXXVII but have not won a playoff game since that 2002 season. In 2023, head coach Josh McDaniels seemed to have lost the locker room, but after he was fired following a 3-5 start, the Raiders won five of their next nine games.
Las Vegas was fortunate with injuries last season, with their Adjusted Starts Lost being only 26.8 — forty less than the league average (per FTN Fantasy).
In free agency, they paid defensive tackle Christian Wilkins $110M over four years, and quarterback Gardner Minshew was signed to a two-year deal worth $25M.
Last season, they struggled to establish the run, posting only 90.7 yards rushing per game to rank 30th in the league, and running back Josh Jacobs left town.
Although last year saw an end to Davante Adams’ three-year First-Team All-Pro streak, he still recorded 1,144 yards receiving. He has topped the 1,000-yard mark in five of the past six seasons and only fell three yards short in 2019. He has made 100+ catches in the past two seasons. At the key left tackle position, Kolton Miller was a fine choice by the Raiders with the fifteenth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Journeyman passer Gardner Minshew is likely to start the year under center but is unlikely to pull up many trees.
In 2023, Maxx Crosby became only the third defensive lineman with at least 90 tackles in a season since 2000. His value to the Raiders? Over the past three years, the gap between Crosby and the next-best Raider for quarterback pressures has been 46, 40, and 45. Last year, he reached his third straight Pro Bowl after recording a career-high 14 1/2 sacks. He is joint-fourth in the league in quarterback sacks since 2022, with 27 takedowns. Christian Wilkins has improved with every season. The Dolphins’ top pick in 2019, the defensive tackle recorded nine sacks and recovered two fumbles in 2023.
The role of punter in the NFL will only garner a few column inches. Still, as an American sports analyst and someone who once played the position at the highest level, Pat McAfee once said: “Punters are people too.” Proving that they can be very important people is AJ Cole III, who has been a Pro Bowler in each of the past three seasons and is the NFL’s finest.
The Raiders took the best player still available, Brock Bowers, with the 13th pick in April’s draft. Since 2021, he has been one of only two FBS players with over 2,500 receiving yards and at least 30 touchdowns from scrimmage.
Antonio Pierce took the reins permanently after going 5-4 as an interim head coach.
As a team from the Pacific Time Zone, the fact that Las Vegas will play five 1 PM kick-offs in the Eastern Time Zone is not very friendly.
The outlaws of the league, a sign in the Raiders’ locker room in the seventies used to read:
There are only two rules:
Raider Rule #1 — cheating is encouraged
Raider Rule #2 — see Rule #1
A team that seemed to pride itself on leading the league in penalty yardage in most seasons appears to have found its natural home in Sin City. Since moving to Vegas, the city has hosted the Super Bowl, but its team has not threatened to reach Super Sunday. Given their dark side, it’s appropriate that the Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium is known as the Death Star. It’s been a long wait for the empire to strike back.
Fans hoping lightning can’t strike twice for the luckless Bolts
Contrary to what most fans would have you believe, no team is intrinsically unlucky. That said, in recent times, the Los Angeles Chargers have tested that theory. In 2016, when still in San Diego, the Chargers lost four of their opening five games. It wasn’t the results but the manner of those defeats that defied belief. In each of those five losses, the Chargers had more than a 99% win probability during the game and yet found bizarre ways to blow a fuse. According to The Wall Street Journal, the probability of losing all four matches was approximately one in 30 million — “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
During the 2022/23 season, in the dying embers of the first half, the scoreboard at TIAA Stadium read: Chargers 27, Jaguars 0. Somehow, the Chargers found a way to lose that super wildcard weekend game. They became the first team in playoff history to lose a game despite a +5 or better turnover differential. American sports doyen Bill Simmons commented: “It didn’t feel like it as it was happening and then…(the Chargers) missed the field goal at 30-20, and the blood started coming out of the walls of the Chargers’ Amityville Horror house.”
Last season, the shameful 63-21 shellacking in front of a national TV audience against their divisional rivals, the Las Vegas Raiders, was humiliating, and they dropped eight of their last nine games. The Chargers haven’t won the AFC West since 2009 and have not made the playoffs in four of the past five seasons.
Regular viewers of the Chargers’ show won’t be surprised to hear that if there was one team that was unfortunate in 2023, it was the Bolts. They were 3-8 in close games, and it was a case of what might have been, as they lost all seven matches that were decided by three points or less. Consequently, their Pythagorean Wins total was 7.05 for a five-win team. FTN Fantasy’s raw DVOA number of -3.2 is that of an 8-9 team. Another positive indicator for the coming campaign is that the Over/Under on their 2023 season wins was 9.5, and teams that underachieve by at least four games tend to improve considerably during the following season.
Over the off-season, wide receiver Keenan Allen left for Chicago in exchange for a fourth-round pick, while running back Austin Ekeler defected to the Commanders.
LA’s pass defense was a big issue last term, as they allowed 249.8 passing yards per game, the third-highest total in the league. They also had problems against the run — against the Detroit Lions, the Chargers gave up 177 yards rushing in the first half — the most yards rushing the Lions had registered in a half in 30 years.
Offensive tackle Rashawn Slater smoothly acclimatised to the NFL after being the 13th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He earned a Pro Bowl nod that year and has maintained the same high standard of play ever since.
Even at the age of 33, Khalil Mack remains an elite performer. Last season, he recorded a career-high 17 sacks. The edge defender was the NFL Defensive Player Of The Year in 2016 and was a member of the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team.
It’s a family affair
Teams can’t afford to constantly double-team Mack, as Joey Bosa is another elite edge rusher on the other side, though injuries have restricted him to less than 500 snaps over the past two seasons. The third player taken in the 2016 NFL Draft, he is a four-time Pro Bowler with excellent bloodlines. His brother, Nick, is one of the few superior players at his position; his dad, John, was the Dolphins’ first-round pick in 1987, and four other members of the Bosa/Kumerow clan have played in the NFL. Joey has racked up 67 sacks in eight seasons as a four-time Pro Bowler. Twice a First-Team All-Pro, former first-round pick Derwin James is one of the league’s elite safeties.
The Chargers drafted two-time AP First-Team All-American offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in the draft, who, according to Pro Football Focus, allowed only one sack in 351 pass-blocking snaps last year. His dad, John, was a two-time Pro Bowl tackle with the Chiefs in the nineties.
A member of another of the NFL’s great families, Jim Harbaugh, was hired as the Chargers’ new head coach. He has a 49–22–1 lifetime record from his time in San Francisco, which included taking them to Super Bowl XLVII. His last game as Michigan coach saw him take them to College Football’s National Championship.
Compared to 2023, the Chargers have caught a break with their 2024 schedule. Last season, their opponents won 154 games. Looking at the season win totals for LA’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 133 matches. Even allowing for their opponents winning games because their schedules included the Chargers, this represents a much easier slate of matches. The season will be bookended by games against some of the league’s poorest teams. They open with Las Vegas and Carolina, and their last three matches are against Denver, New England, and the return match with Las Vegas. However, they have their Bye Week in Week 5, which is earlier than ideal. Week 13 hasn’t been lucky in terms of the schedule. They will be coming off a Monday Night Football game, the Harbaugh Bowl — as Jim pits his wits against his brother, John, — and will have to travel across the country with one day less rest to play Atlanta in a 1 PM Eastern game.
Quarterback Justin Herbert made the Pro Bowl in 2021, but a Plantar fasciitis problem could prove debilitating this season. If Harbaugh is to turn the Chargers’ fortunes around, he must address their issues with a key divisional rival. The Chiefs have been their kryptonite, defeating the Chargers in 17 of their last 20 meetings, including three wins in overtime and a current five-game win streak. The betting market believes that the Chargers will see an uptick in performance. The Over/Under on their season wins is set at 8.5 games. This is the joint-second highest total for a team following a year with five or fewer wins this century. The saying goes that “luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” The new coach’s arrival has many Bolts fans Harbaugh-ing hopes of a revival.
NFC East
Make America’s Team Great Again
In 2023, the Dallas Cowboys were 8-0 at home and scored at least 30 points on seven occasions at AT&T Stadium.
And then the playoffs started.
The Cowboys failed to make a run deep into the playoffs despite having the league’s best offense and the number five-ranked defense. They lost 48-32 to the Green Bay Packers on super wildcard weekend — the second time they have been eliminated at that stage in the past three seasons. They are the first team in NFL history to post at least 12 wins in three straight seasons without advancing to the Conference Championship — a round they haven’t reached since 1995.
Dallas was fortunate with turnovers last year with a +10 differential, which may well regress this season.
The Pokes’ run defense is poor and will likely be worse this season. They have allowed an average of 142 yards rushing in their three playoff losses.
Having burst onto the scene when earning NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year honours in 2016, Dak Prescott’s 36 passing touchdowns led the league last year and he posted a career-best 105.9 Passer Rating en route to his third Pro Bowl. CeeDee Lamb was the NFL’s reception leader last season, earning Pro Bowl recognition for the third straight year. Zack Martin made the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team, and the guard has been elected to the Pro Bowl in nine of his ten seasons. Now out of the (considerable) shadow of his near-namesake, Tyron, Tyler Smith is not only the best T. Smith on the Cowboys offensive line but one of the best guards in the game. Taken 24th overall by the Pokes in 2022, he was named Second-Team All-Pro last season.
DeMarcus Lawrence has started every Cowboys game over the past two seasons and is a four-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle. Twice a First-Team All-Pro, Micah Parsons had to settle for a third-straight Pro Bowl nod last term. He also had to settle for second place among Pro Football Focus’ edge defenders, but Dallas’ first-round pick in 2021 had another outstanding season. Bland by name, DaRon was anything but bland by nature, as he lit up the league with a single-season record five interceptions returned for touchdowns. Pro Football Focus’ second-top-rated cornerback, he was named First-Team All-Pro. On the other side of the field, Trevon Diggs was voted First-Team All-Pro in 2021, the year he led the league in interceptions.
In the first round of the draft, the Cowboys added Tyler Guyton, who didn’t allow a sack, according to Pro Football Focus, on 335 pass-blocking snaps last season.
Head coach Mike McCarthy guided the Packers to Super Bowl XLV success and has a fine 178–113–2 lifetime record. Dallas played dime — six defensive backs — on 61% of snaps last year, which was way higher than any other team. Under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, they will likely play more 4-3 base defense in 2024.
Dallas faces a tougher schedule this year than in 2023. Last season, their opponents won 129 games. Looking at the season win totals for Dallas’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 148 matches.
The Cowboys managed to retain CeeDee Lamb’s services until 2028 by extending his contract, but the fact that Micah Parsons is on his rookie deal gives the Cowboys some leeway with the salary cap. However, they need to end their recent playoff hoodoo. Speaking of hoodoos, going back to 2005, no team has retained the NFC East title, and Big D is the latest title holder to try to retain that divisional crown. In the early years of Jerry Jones’ ownership of America’s Team, the rest of the league was trying to keep up with the Joneses. Now, the Cowboys are trying to keep up with the rest of the NFL’s herd.
Everybody needs good Nabers
The New York Giants walked off the field at Lucas Oil Stadium as world champions in 2011. Since then, they have only recorded one playoff win (against Minnesota in 2022). 2023 saw the G-Men miss out on the playoffs for the sixth time in seven seasons, with their sixth losing record over that span. Even before an ACL injury ended quarterback Daniel Jones’ season, he had been 1-5 as a starter.
Advanced metrics from last season suggest the Giants were fortunate to post six wins. According to FTN Fantasy, New York registered a raw DVOA figure of -26.6. This is usually associated with a 4-13 or 5-12 team. Pythagorean Wins concurs, with a win total of just 3.94. The Giants were also fortunate to end the season +12 in turnovers — the joint-highest figure in the league.
Saquon Barkley left for their division rivals Philadelphia, signing a $37.8M three-year contract. The front office sent second and fifth-round picks in 2024 and 2025 to Carolina for linebacker Brian Burns, who inked a $141M deal over five years.
The Giants ranked in the league’s bottom ten in both offense and defense last year — 30th on offense, 26th on defense. They were last in net yards per play, and their offensive line allowed 85 sacks, the second most in NFL history. On the other side of the ball, their secondary is very poor and could start two players selected on day 2 of this year’s draft.
The fourth player picked in the 2020 NFL Draft, Andrew Thomas took a while to adapt to life in the NFL but has developed into one of the league’s premier offensive tackles.
Unseating Aaron Donald as the league’s best interior defender in his last season sounds like hubris. But that’s what Dexter Lawrence, the Giants’ 2019 first-round pick, did last year, according to Pro Football Focus. He has twice been elected to the Pro Bowl and has had 81 pressures as a nose tackle in the past two seasons. Twice a Pro Bowler, edge rusher Brian Burns has averaged 54 pressures per year since 2020. Bobby Okereke’s first year in the Big Apple saw him record career highs in most categories, and he’s a top performer.
Last year’s poor record yielded the sixth overall pick in the draft, which the G-Men used on LSU’s talented wide receiver Malik Nabers. The Louisiana native possesses elite speed and the ability to create separation.
Head coach Brian Daboll’s first two seasons in New York have produced conflicting results. A playoff berth in 2022 was followed by a poor season a year later, culminating in a 16–19–1 lifetime record. On defense, they had the second-highest blitz rate last season but will be less aggressive this year.
Thirty years after playing a preseason game in Germany, New York will return for a Week 10 encounter with Carolina.
For New York’s boys in blue to improve in 2024, their quarterback will need to stay healthy, and the new kid on the block — Nabers — will have to make a significant contribution as a rookie. The jury is still out on the 2019 sixth-overall pick, quarterback Daniel Jones, who has posted a mediocre lifetime Passer Rating of 85.2. A lot will need to fall right if the team are to take a Giant step forward in the franchise’s 100th season.
High Flying Birds are still trying to reach Oasis
The Philadelphia Eagles flew out of the gate in 2023, opening up 10-1 and looking like a return to the Super Bowl was on the cards. But a late-season swoon saw them drop five of their last six games. Six of the Eagles’ past seven seasons have seen them make the playoffs, including the past three years. This year’s playoff campaign ended in a 32-9 rout at the hands of the Buccaneers.
In 2023, Philly were 8-3 in one-score games but led for most of the three games they lost. Philly was unlucky with turnovers last year, ending the year -10 in that department. However, Pythagorean Wins pointed to 9.13 victories rather than 11, and their raw DVOA of 1.1 suggests they were more like a 9-8 ballclub (per FTN Fantasy).
Retirements are inevitable in the NFL, but no team has suffered as severely in this respect since last year as the Eagles. Jason Kelce (Travis’ brother) and Fletcher Cox both called time on their NFL careers, having been selected to 13 Pro Bowls between them. Center Kelce only allowed one sack in the past two seasons and will be missed. 109 pressures went out the door with defensive tackle Cox and Haason Reddick leaving. Reddick took off for the Jets, with Philly receiving a conditional 2026 third-round pick in return. Saquon Barkley was one of the more intriguing free agent signings, joining Philly from their divisional rivals, the New York Giants, after inking a three-year $37.8M contract.
Last season, the Eagles’ offense ranked seventh, but their defense finished 2023 30th in the league. One area of offensive concern was that the Eagles struggled against the blitz last season.
Love Hurts
Jalen Hurts’ 3,858 yards passing and 23 Touchdowns were both career highs last term. A Pro Bowler in both the past two seasons, he is a dual-threat with over 2,500 yards rushing in four seasons. Two-time Pro Bowler Saquon Barkley was the second overall pick in 2018 and remains one of the league’s top running backs. Philadelphia has one of the league’s most dynamic duos at wide receiver. The Eagles sent a first-round pick to Tennessee for A. J. Brown, and he has repaid them with over 1,450 yards receiving in both the past two seasons. He finished fifth in the NFL with 1,456 yards receiving as he made the Pro Bowl for the third time last season. His running mate, DeVonta Smith, can’t be far off that level after back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns. This productivity earned him a three-year, $75M contract extension. Tight end Dallas Goedert’s 59 catches last season was a career-high, and a Pro Bowl nod can’t be far away.
The Eagles made Lane Johnson the fourth player picked in the 2013 NFL Draft. He has been among the best tackles in the league for over a decade and has been named First-Team All-Pro twice. The Eagles’ Australian-born Jordan Mailata continued his improved form, earning third place in PFF’s list of offensive tackles. After back-to-back Pro Bowl appearances, the Eagles rewarded elite guard Landon Dickerson with a new deal worth $84M over four years.
On the other side of the ball, Darius Slay has been elected to the Pro Bowl on six occasions. Notably, Philly possesses eight elite offensive players, but the corner remains their only standout on defense.
Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell had a long wait in the green room as he became the 22nd pick — the latest point in the draft that the first defensive back has come off the board since 1995.
Nick Sirianni has compiled a 36-20 record as the Eagles’ head coach. Vic Fangio was added as the defensive coordinator. Last year, on offense, they used the no-huddle much less than in 2022.
The Eagles fly to São Paulo to begin their campaign against the Packers, and they have their Bye Week in Week 5, which is earlier than ideal.
Despite rumours of some artistic differences between Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni and two elite players hanging up their cleats, it’s a mark of the Eagles’ talent pool that they are still widely considered strong Super Bowl contenders. The Eagles have experienced Life in the Fast Lane, having made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, and they managed to Take It to the Limit when they won Super Bowl LII. In recent years, the Eagles have fallen short of the title, but are clearly in it for The Long Run. The offense has a ton of talent, and Philly will be banking on Barkley — the New Kid in Town — to deliver significant returns.
Seeking an end to capital punishment
The Washington Commanders started 2-0 in 2023, but after their form started to dip, they traded two of their highest-rated players, Chase Young and Montez Sweat. They appeared to be already thinking about next season, as they lost ten of their final eleven games. The Commanders haven’t won a playoff game since 2005 and have failed to make the postseason in eight of the past nine seasons, including the past four years.
In recent seasons, the team from the nation’s capital had made plenty of headlines for the wrong reasons. Twice the subject of NFL investigations into sexual harassment and workplace misconduct, the team went through a name change from their culturally insensitive old moniker to the uninspired Washington Football Team, or WFT. Given all their recent off-the-field issues, you could be forgiven for thinking those three letters were in the wrong order. At least now, the team has settled on the name Commanders. While it’s more appropriate off the field, they have yet to live up to it on the Gridiron.
2023 brought only four victories, all by eight points or less, and Washington had the worst points differential in the league, being outscored by 189 points. The Commanders should improve regarding turnovers, which were -14 in 2023.
It’s hard to make a case for the defense
Defense was the main issue for the Commanders in 2023. They were last in the league in points per game allowed, giving up an average of 30.5 per game. Quarterback Sam Howell had the most interceptions in the league last season, with 21, perhaps partially excused by the 277 quarterback pressures they allowed last term, which were the most in the league.
Washington’s main offensive threat is scary Terry McLaurin, who made it four straight 1,000-yard seasons and was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2022. Entering the fourth year of his NFL career, Sam Cosmi has established himself as one of the league’s top guards.
Jonathan Allen, the Commanders’ first-round pick in 2017, has twice been elected to the Pro Bowl. Despite turning 34 over the summer, Bobby Wagner remains a top-notch linebacker. A Super Bowl winner in Seattle, the six-time First-Team All-Pro was a member of the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team.
Selected second overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, quarterback Jayden Daniels is the only player in FBS history to post 12,000 career yards passing and 3,000 more on the ground.
Washington hired Dan Quinn as their new head coach after last season. He led Atlanta to Super Bowl LI, where the Falcons let a 28-3 third-quarter lead slip — the largest in Super Bowl history. He has a career head coaching record of 46–44.
For the third consecutive season, Washington gets its Bye Week in Week 14, but it will clock up fewer air miles than any other franchise, with just one visit to the Pacific Time Zone, a Week 4 clash with Arizona. In Week 8, two quarterbacks taken with the first and second overall picks will face off as Daniels battles Caleb Williams and the Bears.
It’s the second year former NBA superstar Magic Johnson has co-owned the team from the nation’s capital. Washington hopes that Daniels can deliver the magic, but Winning Time still looks a little way off for the Commanders.
NFC North
Even the Bears are feeling bullish
In possibly the least surprising move of the off-season, the Chicago Bears used the draft’s first overall pick on quarterback Caleb Williams. He will be Chicago’s 30th starting QB since 2000. The Bears have never had a quarterback throw for 4,000+ yards — they are unique in the NFL in that regard — and 30 touchdowns in a season. The rookie will look to put that right.
After a 14-game losing streak carried over from the previous season, the Bears finished 2023 with a 7-6 run. However, they still managed to blow three separate fourth-quarter leads, registered eight or fewer wins for the fifth straight season, and the franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010.
Da Bears traded quarterback Justin Fields to Pittsburgh for a 2025 conditional sixth-round pick and added Keenan Allen in exchange for a fourth-round draft choice. Running back D’Andre Swift signed a $24M, three-year deal. On the flip side, safety Eddie Jackson — voted one of the 100 greatest Bears players of all time — left in free agency.
In the trenches, Chicago’s 45.1 QB pressure rate allowed last year was the worst in the league, while on the other side of the ball, there is a lack of pass rushers bar edge rusher Montez Sweat.
Two new additions to the Bears wide receiver room are among the team’s top players. Keenan Allen’s eleven seasons with the Chargers saw him make the Pro Bowl six times and top 1,000 yards on six occasions. Opposite him, D. J. Moore produced a career-high 1,364 yards last season and hasn’t missed a game in three years. He ranked 13th in yards per route run in 2023. The duo should dovetail nicely: Allen plays mainly in the slot and regularly beats zone coverage, while Moore generally lines up out wide and performs best versus man coverage. D’Andre Swift broke the 1,000-yard rushing barrier for the first time in 2023 at an impressive 4.6 yards a clip, which was enough to earn him a first Pro Bowl appearance.
One wasn’t just the number on cornerback Jaylon Johnson’s back last year. According to Pro Football Focus, he was also the number one player in his position. He allowed the fewest yards per cover snap last year. Twice a First-Team All-Pro, safety Kevin Byard is on his third team in less than two seasons but remains an elite performer.
Caleb Williams landed the 2022 Heisman Trophy, passing for 3,333 yards and 30 touchdowns last season while adding 11 rushing scores. A slight lack of consistency is the only concern draftniks have raised for the young passer. Chicago will team him with wide receiver Rome Odunze, whose 1,640 yards receiving led the FBS in 2023.
Head coach Matt Eberflus starts his third year in The Windy City with a 10–24 lifetime record. On the offensive side, the Bears will likely use more play-action than most teams this season.
Schedule-wise, Chicago faces the dreaded three games in 11 days, playing on Monday Night Football, then on Sunday, before playing on Thursday night between Week 15 and Week 17. This comes off the back of a three-game road trip in Weeks 13 to 15.
The Bears are one of the teams that will be the subject of HBO’s docuseries Hard Knocks this year. Chicago’s new quarterback was guilty of hubris when he took to X to welcome the team’s newly-drafted punter. Williams declared, “You’re not going to punt too much here.” But it’s rare for a top-five quarterback to have this sort of supporting cast, and the team from the city that is home to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have certainly seen their stock rise over the summer. Chicago’s faithful are banking on them to Bear Down on the playoffs.
Lions restore pride
The Detroit Lions started 2023 8-2 and reached the NFC championship game for the first time since 1991. They unfurled their first divisional banner since 1993 — back when it was the NFC Central — before San Francisco tamed the Lions in the NFC championship game.
During the run-in last year, Detroit rode its luck, becoming the only team in history to be down by 12 or more with four minutes left and minus three or worse in turnovers and still win a game against Chicago in Week 11. They were outgained in five of their last six matches. Pythagorean Wins also suggest that the Lions were lucky to record 12 victories last year, as they point to 10.16 wins.
In the off-season, Detroit sent a third-round pick to the Buccaneers for cornerback Carlton Davis III.
Despite last season’s improvement, Detroit’s pass defense was second-last in yards per pass attempt allowed, and a league-high 74% of the yards they conceded came through the air.
Career-bests of 119 receptions, 1,515 yards receiving, and 10 touchdowns propelled Amon-Ra St. Brown to First-Team All-Pro status in 2023. Sam LaPorta’s ten receiving touchdowns led all NFL tight ends as he was named Second-Team All-Pro as a rookie. His 889 yards on 86 grabs were both records for Lions’ tight ends.
Center Frank Ragnow was graded as Pro Football Focus’ top player at his position last season and has been selected for the Pro Bowl in three of the past four seasons. The seventh overall pick in 2021, Penei Sewell unseated the 49ers Trent Williams as the top-rated tackle in the league and was named First-Team All-Pro, earning himself a $112M, four-year contract extension in the process. Also securing a big payday was his fellow tackle, Taylor Decker, whose excellent performances since being taken in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft resulted in a contract extension worth $60M over three years. Joining this all-star line is Kevin Zeitler, who became a Pro Bowl alternate at guard after another standout season.
Aidan Hutchinson had 11 1/2 sacks and 33 quarterback hits last term, and with a first Pro Bowl nod, he looks set to justify the second overall pick the Lions used on him in 2022. He became only the fifth player since 2006 to record at least 100 QB pressures. One of the league’s premier run stuffers, the Lions beat other suitors to sign defensive tackle D. J. Reader. Detroit hit the jackpot again when they drafted Brian Branch in last year’s second round. The strong safety snared three interceptions and made 74 tackles as a rookie.
They looked to follow that up by trading up in the draft to nab Terrion Arnold, arguably the best cornerback available. A player with rare athleticism, he fell to them after the glut of offensive players at the auction’s start.
Head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressive style has delivered a 31–34–1 lifetime record. Retaining Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator was as significant as any off-season addition the Lions made. Defensively, they switched to a more aggressive system with more man coverage and a blitz-heavy package midway through last season. But do they have the cornerbacks to make this style of play work?
Dome sweet dome
The Lions playing on the fourth Thursday in November has become as much a staple of Thanksgiving as turkey and cranberry sauce. As recently as 2022, that was the one and only time a national audience got to see the Lions. This year, they have five prime-time games. 13 of their first 14 matches are indoors and 14 of 17 in total, while one of the road games is in the mild conditions of Santa Clara, so the Lions will find themselves in their regular habitat. Among those who will be delighted by a regular season free from scouring The Weather Channel for updates is quarterback Jared Goff, who has registered a 67.5% completion percentage under a roof but only completes 62.4% of throws when exposed to the elements.
Detroit is in an unusual position — having to defend their division title. The hunter has become the hunted. The received wisdom is that teams that make this sort of improvement from the NFL’s cellar tend to regress downwards before they can make a final ascent to the NFL’s summit. However, the men from the Motor City have accelerated rapidly over the past two seasons. Any idea who can dethrone the Chiefs? Put your hands up for Detroit.
Can Love really conquer all?
The Green Bay Packers made the playoffs in their first season without Aaron Rodgers since 2004 and became the first seventh-seed to win a postseason game, with new signal caller Jordan Love under center. The Packers won at least 13 games in 2019, 2020, and 2021 but failed to reach double digits in the past two campaigns. In four of the past five years, they have made at least the divisional round of the playoffs, but the Pack are 8-10 in postseason play since they won Super Bowl XLV, and were eliminated by the San Francisco 49ers last season.
Green Bay scored on 95% of goal-to-go situations in 2023 — the best in the league since 2000. It’s doubtful they will replicate that or recover 73% of fumbles as they did last season.
Running back Josh Jacobs signed a $48M, four-year deal as the Packers released Aaron Jones. On defense, the Packers lost linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who had been a solid performer over three years in Wisconsin.
Though they lacked a standout performer, Green Bay uncovered some depth at wide receiver last season, with four players reaching 400 receiving yards — tied for the most in the league. The Cheeseheads have invested heavily in defense, and opening day could see them field a defense with ten players who were either first or second-round draft picks.
Perhaps running back Josh Jacobs was still feeling the effects of his exertions in 2022, when 1,653 yards rushing during the regular season led the league, earning him First-Team All-Pro honours, which caused a somewhat laboured effort last season. The 26-year-old former first-rounder joined from the Raiders and is young enough to rebound. Helping to pave the way for Jacobs will be one of the league’s top guards, Elgton Jenkins. He has twice been named to the Pro Bowl.
Green Bay can boast elite players at each level of their defense; three times a Pro Bowler over the past five seasons, the Pack’s 2016 first-rounder, defensive tackle Kenny Clark, hasn’t missed a start over the past two years. Midway through last season, linebacker Rashan Gary inked a four-year contract extension, and he is a crucial cog in the Packers’ defensive scheme. Twice a Pro Bowler, Jaire Alexander is an elite cornerback and was the Packers’ first-round selection in 2018. Before joining the Pack, free safety Xavier McKinney broke up 11 passes in his last campaign with the Giants.
The Packers drafted left tackle Jordan Morgan, 25th overall, from Arizona in April’s draft. He will need to work on his strength but has the quick hands and feet of a top-notch offensive lineman.
Head coach Matt LaFleur has an impressive 56-27 regular season record with Green Bay but is only 3-4 in the playoffs. The defense will feature more single-high safety formations and far less of the two-high safety looks they ran last term.
The Packers face a more demanding schedule this year than in 2023. Last season, their opponents won 137 games. Looking at the season win totals for Green Bay’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 147 matches.
Historically, Green Bay was always the team that found a way to win the NFC North, while their often flaky opponents found ways to throw the division away. With the Lions’ recent emergence and the men from Wisconsin in rebuilding mode, they are no longer leaders of the pack. Quarterback Jordan Love finished second in the league with 32 touchdown passes as he progressed in his first year as a starter. Love’s continued development will be central to the Pack’s hopes of bringing another title to Titletown. It took him three years to be given his first NFL start, and he hasn’t quite reached the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks yet, but then you can’t hurry Love.
Bookmakers reluctant to row in with the Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings’ 2023 season was a rollercoaster. They lost their first three games before a hot streak saw them reach a 6-4 record. Then, they dropped six of their last seven matches, missing the playoffs for the third time in four years.
Only one of those losses was by more than 10 points, and a couple of metrics point to Minnesota being better than their 2023 record. Minnesota will hope for positive regression regarding turnovers after a -12 mark last year and they recorded 8.68 Pythagorean Wins compared to the seven victories they achieved.
Since last season, running back Aaron Jones has been signed to a one-year $7M contract, and the former Packer will undoubtedly have Minnesota’s two regular season tussles with Green Bay circled on the calendar.
The Vikes’ most pressing concern entering 2024 was the interior of the defensive line, which they sought to address in the draft.
Despite only playing ten games last term, Justin Jefferson racked up 1,074 yards receiving and five touchdowns. 2022 saw him become the NFL’s Offensive Player Of The Year. Aaron Jones was the NFL’s co-leader in yards rushing in 2019 and made the Pro Bowl a year later. The eighth overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Lions, T. J. Hockenson is a two-time Pro Bowler. He registered his best season with 960 yards receiving in 2023. However, he tore two knee ligaments in December and will take time to return to his best.
Elite offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw is helping pave the way for these skill-position stars. The Vikings’ first-round choice in 2021, he can’t be far away from earning Pro Bowl recognition. Minnesota’s other starting tackle, Brian O’Neill’s sole Pro Bowl appearance, came in 2021, but he too is one of the best at his position.
Venerable safety Harrison Smith has been selected for six Pro Bowls. The Vikings’ first-round pick in 2012, he started all 17 games in 2023.
Minnesota traded up to get J.J. McCarthy, who had a 27-1 record as a starter at Michigan. They followed that by taking First-Team All-American edge rusher Dallas Turner 17th overall. However, the rookie quarterback suffered a preseason knee injury and underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He will become the first quarterback selected in the first round to miss their entire rookie season through injury. Turner is an accomplished pass rusher, who needs to improve against the run.
Kevin O’Connell remains the Vikes ‘ head coach, with a 20–15 record after two years in the job. The men from The Twin Cities were aggressive on defense last year, with a blitz rate higher than anyone else in the NFL, at 51%
The Vikings face three 2023 playoff teams in their opening four games of 2024. Then O’Connell’s men must sacrifice a home game, as they are the nominal home team for their London matchup with the Jets. Their Bye Week is in Week 6 before a late-season schedule that looks more like something the NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves might face, with a three-game road trip in November and a three-game homestand starting on December 1st.
Play It Again, Sam
A long-standing franchise, the Vikings have been one of the league’s nearly men. They have been to the playoffs in 31 seasons and have lost on all four Super Bowl appearances. Their 1998 squad won 15 out of 16 regular season games and are the only 15-1 team not to reach Super Sunday. After they essentially lost their NFC championship clash with the Saints on a coin toss during the 2009 season, the league changed its overtime rules. In those days, the winner in the extra period was the first team to score. A high-scoring 28-28 encounter finished when, after winning the coin flip, the Saints marched into field goal range to edge it 31-28. The long-suffering Vikings’ fans hoped that drafting a high-profile passer might finally lead the charge to a Super Bowl title. McCarthy’s injury causes further uncertainty at quarterback and will give Sam Darnold — playing for his fourth team since 2018 — an opportunity for playing time. A lifetime completion percentage of 59.7 and a career Passer Rating of just 78.3 for the 2018 third-overall pick don’t augur well. Nor does a 21–35 record as a starter. Once more opportunity knocks for Darnold, but bookmakers are wary of siding with the Vikings with the uncertainty under center.
NFC South
Success and the Falcons are distant Cousins
The Atlanta Falcons should have won Super Bowl LI. At one point, they led the New England Patriots 28-3, but a late swoon saw the Pats clip the Falcons’ wings 34-28 in overtime. Atlanta has gone 49-66 since that Super Sunday meltdown. The Falcons have missed the playoffs in each of the past six seasons.
Atlanta was fortunate to win seven games last year, as FTN Fantasy pegged their raw DVOA figure as -18.6, which suggests they were a poor outfit. The Falcons were lucky with injuries last season, with only 36.3 Adjusted Games Lost. That said, opponents were successful in 95% of their field goal attempts against them, which is unlikely to be repeated, and Atlanta was unfortunate to have a turnover differential of -12.
The Falcons hope signing quarterback Kirk Cousins to a $180M four-year deal will help Atlanta rise up. The four-time Pro Bowler only played the first eight weeks of last season, but his 18 passing touchdowns in that span were one more than Atlanta’s passers achieved over the whole season. The Falcons also added the excellent safety Justin Simmons, formerly with Denver.
An area of weakness is their lack of pass rush: since 2021, the 81 sacks the Falcons have recorded are the fewest in the league. According to PFF’s Pass Rush Grades, none of Atlanta’s pass rushers made the league’s top 45.
Conversely, the interior of the Falcons offensive line was a strength last year. Twice a Pro Bowler, Chris Lindstrom was the best guard in the league last season (per Pro Football Focus). Though just below the elite level, Drew Dalman was graded as PFF’s third-best center in the league.
Lured away from Cincinnati in the off-season, Jessie Bates earned his first Pro Bowl nod and was the league’s second-best safety in Pro Football Focus’ rankings. The Falcs made A. J. Terrell the 16th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, and he was named Second-Team All-Pro in 2021. The secondary will be a real strength for the Falcons, with Justin Simmons, the NFL interceptions co-leader in 2022, joining these two in an imposing unit.
Given that they had swooped for Cousins, it was a surprise when the Falcons selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr with the eighth pick of the draft. He led the FBS with 4,903 yards passing last season and has a great arm. However, he needs to improve his touch on his throws and will likely have to serve his apprenticeship under the veteran signal caller before assuming the starting role.
Former Rams defensive coordinator, Tampa Bay head coach, and Falcons’ interim head coach Raheem Morris is charged with reviving Atlanta’s fortunes but brings with him a 21–38 lifetime record. There will be a big shake-up on offense. Having lined up with three wide receivers less than anyone else last season, Atlanta will likely use an 11 personnel package — one running back, one tight ends, and three wide receivers — a lot under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who favours that offensive style.
The schedule is pretty soft, but the men from Georgia face three of their most challenging games in the opening four weeks, taking on Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Kansas City.
That early baptism of fire and the adjustment time for Kirk Cousins to get used to a new system may lead to a problematic start. Still, Atlanta should rise up as the season progresses, and anything is possible in a poor NFC South division.
Oh, Carolina!
How bad were the 2023 Carolina Panthers? Well, they only won two games and became the first team in NFL history not to run a play in the fourth quarter with the lead — both wins were courtesy of last-minute plays. They have only posted one winning season since losing Super Bowl L in 2015 and missed the playoffs in each of the past six seasons.
Only three NFL teams have forced fewer turnovers per game since 2000 than the 2023 Panthers, which should improve in 2024.
One of the Panthers’ few stars in recent seasons, edge rusher Brian Burns, departed in the off-season. Jadeveon Clowney will be charged with trying to replace some of Burns’ quarterback pressures, while ex-Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson joins the offense.
Carolina finished in a share of last place on offense and 29th on defense last year which shows the size of the task facing them. The anaemic offense scored ten or fewer points in seven games, and its 4.1 yards per play were the lowest in the NFL since 2008. They failed to register a single point over their last two outings.
Picked seventh in the 2020 NFL Draft, defensive tackle Derrick Brown received his first Pro Bowl nod last season. He registered 103 total tackles and 15 quarterback hits — both career highs. The Panthers’ other elite performer, cornerback Jaycee Horn, has had an excellent if oft-injured start to his NFL career. Like this year’s draft, the 2018 renewal saw a run on offensive players, and the cornerback was the first defensive player selected, with the eighth pick. He has proved worthy of that lofty selection when he’s been on the field but has only played 20 games in three years.
The Panthers had the worst record in Football in 2023 and would have had the top pick of the 2024 NFL Draft had they not traded away that selection last year to move up to take quarterback Bryce Young, a year earlier. Instead, Carolina drafted wide receiver Xavier Legette with the final pick in round one.
Dave Canales, hired as Carolina’s new head coach, knows the NFC South from his previous role as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator.
Given their 2023 woes, it is no surprise that the Panthers are the only NFL team without any prime-time games this season. They open their slate with three matches against teams with a losing record last year. The Panthers travel to Munich for a Week 10 encounter with the Giants, after which they get their Bye Week.
Bryce Young’s rookie season saw him throw for 2,877 yards with only 11 touchdowns and ten interceptions. Given the draft capital the Panthers gave up to secure the first overall pick, they haven’t been able to surround him with many weapons. Whether Carolina’s season goes north or south will have much to do with their young quarterback.
Life is no longer a Brees for the Saints
Quarterback is the pivotal position in the NFL. While American Football might be the ultimate team game, very few franchises make it to Super Sunday without a top-class triggerman. 13-time Pro Bowler Drew Brees, named NFL Offensive Player Of The Year twice, led the New Orleans Saints to victory in Super Bowl XLIV, where he was voted the game’s Most Valuable Player. The Saints have had six different starters since Drew Brees retired in 2020, and his have been big shoes to fill.
The Saints ranked in the top ten in both offensive and defensive scoring last term, but they missed the playoffs for the third straight year. The Saints struggled against the league’s stronger outfits, posting a 1-5 mark against 2023 playoff teams. After four consecutive seasons with double-digit wins, they have not reached that total in any of the past three campaigns.
New Orleans should have capitalised on its +11 turnover differential last season, and the Saints are unlikely to be so fortunate again in 2024.
Edge rusher Chase Young arrived during a relatively quiet off-season, though neck surgery may mean he misses time this season. Former Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay also arrived in Louisiana, while erstwhile Pro Bowl wide receiver Michael Thomas was released.
Elite wide receiver Chris Olave posted career highs with 87 catches for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns last year and has topped 1,000 yards receiving in both seasons since being drafted in the first round. Five times a Pro Bowler, running back Alvin Kamara’s 694 yards rushing in 2023 were the lowest of his career.
The Saints will be praying that Ryan Ramczyk can return from injury. He has been a highly consistent performer at his tackle position and was named First-Team All-Pro in 2019. Center Erik McCoy was a Pro Bowl alternate last season and is one of the league’s best pivots.
Although he is now 35 years old, Cameron Jordan has logged 117 1/2 sacks since the Saints used a first-round pick on him in 2011. Although still an elite player, the eight-time Pro Bowler’s two sacks last season was his lowest total since his rookie year. Opposite him, the second player selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, Chase Young, inked a $13M, one-year deal with the Saints. Although he was a Pro Bowler and Defensive Rookie Of The Year in his first season, his effort has been questioned in recent years, and New Orleans will be his third team since the start of 2023.
Demario Davis finished last season as the third-best linebacker in the league (per Pro Football Focus) and has twice been elected to the Pro Bowl. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been a success since the Saints used the 11th pick of the 2017 NFL Draft on him. Named Defensive Rookie Of The Year that season, he has been selected to the Pro Bowl on four occasions, but he has only been able to suit up for 17 games over the past two seasons. Joining him in the secondary, the Honey Badger Tyrann Mathieu was selected to the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team. The two-time First-Team All-Pro hasn’t missed a start over the past two seasons.
In April, NOLA selected Taliese Fuaga in round one of the draft after the tackle didn’t allow a sack in 694 pass-blocking snaps in his college career.
Although a fine defensive mind, head coach Dennis Allen has coached four full NFL seasons. In each of those years, his teams have fallen below their season win total. On offense, the Saints used play action less than any other team last season, which should change this year.
New Orleans faces a more demanding schedule this term than in 2023. Last season, their opponents won 125 games. Looking at the season win totals for the Saints’ 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 138.5 matches. Although not as inviting as the cupcake schedule they faced in 2023, the 2024 version is still one of the league’s easiest, but they do see Dallas, Philadelphia, and Kansas City within the first five weeks. They face the dreaded three games in 11 days, playing on Monday Night Football, then on a Sunday, before playing on Thursday night, between Week 5 and Week 7.
Quarterback Derek Carr’s 25 passing touchdowns last season was his highest tally since 2020, and the Saints have a solid supporting cast around him. For the first 54 years of the Super Bowl era, no team managed to qualify for the Super Bowl when their home stadium was hosting the big game. Then, both the Buccaneers and the Rams managed that feat in back-to-back seasons. The NFC South is wide open, but many observers are more sceptical about NOLA’s coaching staff than their players as they bid to be at their own party in February.
NFC South rivals looking to pass the Bucs
A strong finish to the season saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win five of their last six games, and for the first time in their history, the Bucs completed a hat-trick of division titles. Tampa Bay has reached the playoffs in each of the past four seasons.
The Buccaneers dealt cornerback Carlton Davis III to Detroit in the off-season and failed to make any significant additions to their roster.
The interior of their offensive line is porous, and they had the fourth-worst pass defense in the league last season, allowing 248.9 passing yards per game.
Mike Evans became the first player in league history to begin his career with ten straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Tampa Bay fans will have been relieved to see the wideout sign a two-year contract extension worth $52M. On the other side, Chris Godwin’s 2019 campaign saw his 1,333 yards receiving effort rewarded with a Second-Team All-Pro selection. He topped 1,000 yards again in 2023, starting all 19 of Tampa Bay’s games. Tackle Tristan Wirfs is a three-time Pro Bowler and was the Bucs’ first-round selection in 2020.
The Buccaneers also found treasure with a few other recent high-draft picks. In the first round in 2018, they took Vita Vea, who was elected to the Pro Bowl in 2021. They plundered linebacker Lavonte David in the second round in 2012, and he was a First-Team All-Pro a year later. He is now preparing for his 13th season with the franchise but remains one of the best NFL linebackers against the run. Another second-rounder, Antoine Winfield Jr, was drafted in 2020 and was graded as PFF’s top safety last season when he was named First-Team All-Pro. A survivor of the Bucs’ Super Bowl LV triumph, Jamel Dean remains an elite cornerback.
Given the issues along the interior of their offensive line, it is perhaps not surprising that Tampa Bay selected center Graham Barton as its first-round pick in the 2024 draft. A tackle in college, he looks more suited to the role of center in the pros.
Head coach Todd Bowles owns a less-than-impressive 44–60 lifetime record and will be entering his third season at the helm of the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay face arguably the most brutal four-game stretch of any team this season. Between Week 7 and Week 10, they take on Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco. But the rest of their schedule is more forgiving.
Tampa Bay is still trying to fill the GOAT-shaped hole left by the departure of legendary quarterback Tom Brady. Bucs’ fans were underwhelmed when they made Baker Mayfield their new signal caller. However, after his career highs of 4,044 yards passing and 28 passing touchdowns, the front office was sufficiently impressed to give him a $100M three-year contract extension. Whether it’s plain sailing for the Buccaneers will have much to do with how he fares behind an understrength offensive line this year. Any reproduction of the Faker Mayfield play when he first came into the league, and the ship could run aground.
NFC West
Do the Cardinals have a prayer?
With their starting quarterback missing the beginning of the season and a roster denuded of its stars in recent years, 2023 was never going to be an easy season for the Arizona Cardinals. Although there were valid reasons for their struggles, it didn’t help that in Week 2, they led 20-0 against the Giants and still lost. They suffered a 20-21 defeat in Week 18 against Seattle when they missed two game-winning field goals in the last three minutes. In Week 9, the Cardinals had 58 net yards of offense — only the eighth team since 1989 to record 60 or fewer yards in a game. It all added up to a second 4-13 finish in the past two seasons. However, three of their four wins last year came against playoff teams (Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia). The 2021 season saw their only playoff appearance since 2016.
The Cardinals were unlucky with injuries last season. FTN Fantasy pegged Arizona’s Adjusted Games Lost at 100.1 — over 30 above the league average.
Over the off-season, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting was added as a free agent. Arizona brought in quarterback Desmond Ridder in exchange for wide receiver Rondale Moore but released the passer last month. Another wideout, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, departed for Kansas City.
On offense, no Cardinal wide receiver managed to record 600 yards receiving last season, and their offensive line is one of the league’s worst. On the other side of the ball, they were second-last in the league in points per game allowed, surrendering 26.8.
During the last off-season, the talk was that the only ace in the Cards’ pack was looking for a trade. Safety Budda Baker, a six-time Pro Bowler, remains with the organisation for now.
Marvin Harrison Jr was the Cardinals’ first-round pick. The Fred Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation’s top wide receiver in 2023 recorded over 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in each of his past two seasons. His father is already in the Hall of Fame, and Harrison Jr has the size, speed, and hands to follow in those footsteps. They then wasted little time adding Darius Robinson, an edge rusher, with the 27th pick. The Missouri alumnus lacks the speed of some of the other top college edge rushers but isn’t short of strength.
Former Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will take charge of his second season with the Cardinals. Last season, they used more four-deep coverage than any team in the league.
Although the cards are stacked against Arizona with the early-season schedule, compared to 2023, the Cardinals have caught a break with their overall 2024 slate of games. Last season, their opponents won 162 games. Looking at the season win totals for Arizona’s 2024 opponents, they are projected to win 141 matches.
Injuries have caused quarterback Kyler Murray to miss 15 of 34 possible starts over the past two seasons. Cardinals’ fans will be praying that the 2019 first-overall pick can stay on the field more often in 2024. Possessing one of the poorer rosters in the NFL, the Cards aren’t flush with too many aces. The Rams looked a poor outfit heading into last season, and ended up in the postseason. While the same could happen to the Cards, a flop is more likely.
LA looking for a blockbuster sequel
On 15th March, the moment Los Angeles Rams’ fans had been dreading became a reality.
Aaron Donald retired.
He played for ten seasons. In all ten seasons, the standout defensive tackle made the Pro Bowl. A three-time NFL Defensive Player Of The Year, he hangs up his cleats as one of the greatest defensive linemen in NFL history.
At the start of 2023, LA looked like lambs (rams) to the slaughter, and a poor 3-6 start did nothing to disprove that idea. However, LA finished strong, winning seven of their last eight games. A 10-7 record saw them advance to the postseason before losing by a single point to the Detroit Lions on super wild-card weekend.
Advanced metrics suggest that the Rams were fortunate to end 2023 with ten wins. Their raw DVOA figure of -0.3 indicates they were lucky to record double-digit victories. They arguably suffered fewer critical injuries than anyone else in the league, with an NFL-low 26.4 Adjusted Starts Lost — per FTN Fantasy.
While Donald’s departure dominated their off-season, LA added cornerbacks Tre’Davious White, Darious Williams, and safety Kamren Curl.
The kicking game was an issue last season. Their 11 missed field goals and four missed extra points were the worst performance in the NFL since 2015
Despite playing at unheralded Eastern Washington, quite how College Football’s career leader in yards receiving, Cooper Kupp, wasn’t drafted until the third round in 2017 is a mystery. But after 68 teams passed over the wide receiver, the Rams took him, and he has continued to make his mark. He was the NFL’s Offensive Player Of The Year in 2021 when he landed the Triple Crown — leading the league in receptions, yards receiving, and receiving touchdowns. He was also named MVP of Super Bowl LVI. Injuries have restricted Kupp in recent seasons, and he hasn’t reached the 1,000 receiving-yard plateau over that time. If few Football fans had any idea who Puka Nacua was on opening day, they were undoubtedly familiar with his work after he set single-season rookie records with 1,486 receiving yards and 105 catches. His four games with at least 150 scrimmage yards were the most by a rookie wideout in the Super Bowl era. Kevin Dotson’s improved play earned him second place among guards in Pro Football Focus’ ratings.
Tre’Davious White’s seven years in Buffalo saw the cornerback named to two Pro Bowls. Alas, he hasn’t played a full slate of games since 2018 and is rehabbing a torn Achilles Tendon suffered in Week 4 last season. Patrolling the other sideline, Darious Williams is beginning his second stint with the Rams. He has a Super Bowl ring from his first spell in LA and his strong performances in Jacksonville last term — when he had fifteen forced incompletions — were enough to earn him a three-year contract on the West Coast.
The Rams took edge rusher Jared Verse with the 19th pick of April’s draft. He brings a potent combination of strength and intensity.
One of the brightest young minds in the game, Sean McVay, has registered double-digit wins in five of his seven seasons as a head coach. The Rams used 11 personnel — one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers — on 95% of their offensive snaps last term, the most in the league.
For a city that loves to be on the big stage, Los Angeles will make five prime-time appearances in 2024.
The Rams defied expectations last season. They got a huge boost from their 2023 draft class; Puka Nacua became an overnight success, and other unheralded rookies Kobie Turner and Bryant Young combined for 19 sacks. LA has a solid quarterback in 2011 NFL Comeback Player of the Year, Matthew Stafford, who was the first overall pick in the draft, two years earlier. The defense held up better than expected — appropriately for LaLaLand; many understudies stepped up to the mark. That said, the sequel is unlikely to be as good as the original without their leading man.
Purdy set to lead The New Avengers
So near and yet so far.
The San Francisco 49ers have reached the NFC championship game in four of the past five seasons and has made at least that stage in its past seven playoff appearances. Yet, the Chiefs denied the Niners a sixth Lombardi Trophy.
FTN Fantasy’s Adjusted Games Lost for the 49ers was just 34.5, more than thirty below the league average. They will be lucky to escape so lightly in 2024. San Fran will likely see some regression regarding turnovers, too, as their +10 mark from last season will be hard to match.
Free agency saw two of the 49ers’ former first-round picks depart: defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw. Edge rusher Chase Young left town, with another former first-rounder, Leonard Floyd, coming in to replace him. The loss of Armstead will hurt the most — the 49ers allowed an extra 0.7 yards per rush when he wasn’t on the field last term.
Being the last player picked in the NFL Draft isn’t quite like being picked last in gym class, but it does bring the unwanted title of Mr Irrelevant. That dubious honour was bestowed on Brock Purdy in 2022, but the seventh-rounder — rather than third-overall pick Trey Lance — secured the job of starting quarterback, with the 49ers trading Lance. Purdy led the league with a Passer Rating of 113 last year and threw for 31 touchdowns, earning a first Pro Bowl appearance. The second-year passer’s effort against the Bucs in Week 11 was the first time a 49er QB had registered a perfect Passer Rating in a game since 1989. Purdy’s 9.06 yards per pass attempt last season was the third-best in NFL history.
It’s tricky to stop Run CMC
A member of the Madden 99 club, running back Christian McCaffrey led the league with 1,459 yards rushing last season and registered over 2,000 scrimmage yards before adding over 400 more in the playoffs. A three-time First-Team All-Pro, Run CMC was named the NFL’s Offensive Player Of The Year. Alongside him in the backfield is the answer to the question: why do some teams still keep a fullback on their roster: Kyle Juszczyk. His 11 NFL seasons have resulted in eight trips to the Pro Bowl.
As if stopping McCaffrey from catching the ball isn’t challenging enough, opponents faced the best wide receiver and tight end trio in the game. Former first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk had been the subject of trade rumours, but at the end of August, San Fran signed last season’s Second-Team All-Pro wideout to a four-year $120M contract extension. Across from him, Deebo Samuel was a First-Team All-Pro selection in 2021. Completing the trio, tight end George Kittle has been elected to five Pro Bowls and topped 1,000 yards receiving for the third time in his career last season. He led all tight ends with 1,020 yards receiving. That effort was enough for him to surpass Travis Kelce at the top of Pro Football Focus’ grades at the position. Trent Williams is the (red and) gold standard for offensive tackles and has been named First-team All-Pro in each of the past three seasons and he has a 99 rating in the Madden computer game.
According to PFF’s list, the NFL’s 2022 Defensive Player Of The Year, Nick Bosa, was the third-top-rated edge defender last season. The second overall pick in 2019, he has made the Pro Bowl in four of his five seasons. According to Pro Football Focus, three-time First-Team All-Pro Fred Warner finished 2023 as the NFL’s second-best linebacker. The 49ers struck gold when they used a 2019 fifth-round pick on linebacker Dre Greenlaw. Unfortunately, he will miss at least the start of the season after surgery on a torn Achilles. The injury occurred not in the heat of battle but actually just running onto the field during the Super Bowl. The Niners certainly missed him in the later stages of that loss to the Chiefs. A Super Bowl winner from his time with Kansas City, Charvarius Ward’s career-high five interceptions and 23 defensed passes were enough to secure a first Pro Bowl appearance. Talanoa Hufanga was named First-Team All-Pro in his second season in 2022. His 2023 campaign ended abruptly with an ACL tear in Week 11, but he will be back in harness this season.
Maybe fearing that they might lose one of their star wide receivers in the near future, the Niners nabbed speedy Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick in April. A player who performs best out of the slot, the rookie wideout suffered a gunshot wound on the eve of the season but is in a stable condition.
If the Super Bowl hangover wasn’t enough, the 2024 schedule means the 49ers must contend with fatigue. They will be at a disadvantage in terms of rest compared to their opponents in eight matches — the highest number in NFL history.
The Super Bowl hangover is very real. 15 Super Bowl losers out of the past 23 have gone under their season win total the following year, with six going over, and two matching their expected mark. Nevertheless, the 49ers are massively helped by the fact that they have an elite young quarterback who they are only paying $1M per year — allowing them cap space to retain most of their stars. Essentially, their young passer’s current rookie contract is the best value deal in US sports, and when healthy, the Niners have been very potent. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams on the field, they scored at least 30 points nine times. If the 49ers’ quest is going to pan out, they will need to keep their superstars on the field.
Microsoft legacy in the midst of a reboot
In 2023, when the Seattle Seahawks were good, they were excellent. They won in overtime against the eventual NFC championship finalists, Detroit, defeated Philadelphia who represented the NFC in the Super Bowl the previous year, and narrowly failed to beat a Dallas team that has compiled three consecutive 12-5 seasons. And yet they finished with a 9-8 mark. Seattle’s recent inconsistency is reflected in the fact that they have missed the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. Having flown out of the gate with a 6-3 start, they lost five of their last eight and the playoff tiebreaker.
Despite registering nine victories, Pythagorean Wins suggested the Seahawks were fortunate to end the year with a winning record, pegging their true win total at 7.35.
Seattle’s most significant off-season move was adding linebacker Tyrel Dodson. However, they parted ways with two high-profile names. Linebacker Bobby Wagner swapped Washington State for Washington D.C. and after being released, Jamal Adams wound up in Tennessee.
The Seahawks did an excellent job protecting the Football last season, coughing up a league-low six fumbles. However, they suffered on the other side of the ball, as their defense allowed 371.4 total yards per game, ranking them 30th in the league. The defense struggled to get off the field, finishing last in third-down performance and had difficulties covering over the middle, which is the M.O. of divisional rivals the Rams and 49ers, whom they see twice a season.
Kenneth Walker III topped 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie and backed that up with another strong campaign in 2023. Elite wide receiver DK Metcalf’s tally of 1,114 yards receiving was his most since 2020, earning him a second Pro Bowl nod. His running mate, Tyler Lockett’s blazing speed, perfectly complements Metcalf’s size and strength. Lockett fell short of a fifth-straight season with 1,000 yards receiving, but he was a First-Team All-Pro back in 2015, and his 50 receiving touchdowns since 2018 rank sixth in the league.
On defense, Riq Woolen co-led the NFL in interceptions in 2022 when he made the Pro Bowl and is an elite cornerback. On the other sideline, the fifth overall pick in 2023, Devon Witherspoon, adjusted to life in the NFL very quickly, being selected for the all-star game. Before swapping Western New York for the Pacific Northwest, Tyrel Dodson topped PFF’s grades at the linebacker position.
Seattle selected Byron Murphy II, one of the best defensive players available, with the 16th pick of the draft. He is equally adept against the run and as a pass rusher.
For the first time since the 2009 season, Pete Carroll will not be on the Seattle sideline. The former head coach is one of a select group to have both a College Football National Championship and a Super Bowl title on his resume. The highest compliment you can pay Carroll is that he made the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team as head coach alongside Bill Belichick. The Seahawks hired former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, one of the league’s brightest defensive minds, as Carroll’s replacement. On offense, they will likely use more 11 personnel this season — one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers.
Schedule-wise, the good news is that both Denver and New England might start rookie quarterbacks against Seattle in the opening two weeks. The bad news is that they face the dreaded three games in 11 days, playing on Monday Night Football, then on a Sunday, before playing on Thursday night between Weeks 4 and 6.
Oh, Geno
After a fine 2023 season, Geno Smith’s completion percentage fell by 5.1% last year; he threw for 658 fewer yards and ten fewer touchdowns. For all his limitations, the quarterback, considered a disappointment during his time with the Jets, is 17-15 as a starter in Seattle. The Seahawks franchise was revived by former Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, who hired Carroll and oversaw their only world championship triumph in Super Bowl XLVIII. Since the billionaire’s passing, the team has moved under the auspices of The Paul Allen Estate and moved on from their long-serving coach. The men from the Pacific Northwest possess arguably the league’s most significant home-field advantage, with their raucous faithful at Lumen Field serving as the 12th man. Whether they can gain a numerical advantage in terms of their 2024 win/loss record remains to be seen.
Bookmakers see the 49ers as Kansas City’s chief rivals
At the time of writing, Kansas City heads the Super Bowl LIX Outright Winner market betting at 11/2, ahead of the team they beat to clinch Super Bowl LVIII, San Francisco, at 6/1. Behind these two market leaders are a cluster of contenders: the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Houston Texans.
Whatever the form book and the betting markets tell us, each NFL season sees surprising teams make the playoffs. In 34 consecutive seasons since 1990, at least four teams have made the postseason after missing out the year before. Last year, half a dozen playoff teams made up for missing the postseason in 2022.
Let the good times roll
Don’t worry if you think a long snapper is a type of fish; the NFL will have you hooked. On the eve of a new season, a significant number of the 32 NFL franchises will be hoping to leave 1500 Sugar Bowl Drive, New Orleans, with the sweet taste of success come February. New Orleans is widely credited as the place where the world’s first poker game was played. Some NFL teams have decided to shuffle the pack, while others are going all-in on delivering a Lombardi Trophy. Predicting who’ll make the final table in The Big Easy is far from straightforward.
Louisiana is known as The Sportsman’s Paradise. The return of action on the Gridiron over the next six months will be heaven for NFL fans.
