The 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe may be short of a superstar but this year’s running of Europe’s richest horse race is an incredibly competitive affair with the entire field separated by just 6lbs on Racing Post ratings.
In such an open contest it has to be worth taking on those at the head of the market and it may just be that Japan’s quest for an Arc winner could finally be realised on Sunday at Longchamp.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2024 tips
Al Riffa to win @ 9/1
Fantastic Moon to win (each-way) @ 18/1
EW: 1/5 for 4 Places.
Bet on the latest horse racing odds at Betzone
Four-year-old has form in the book to have Japan jumping for joy
Three-year-olds Look De Vega, Sosie and Los Angeles are locked in a triple-threat for Arc favouritism at the time of writing and that’s understandable. They have a greater potential for improvement than their older foes and receive 6lbs in weight from their male elders.
However, seven of the last 10 runnings of this Longchamp Group 1 have gone the way of runners aged four or older and, in a year in which Sosie’s trainer Andre Fabre has found the Classic generation underwhelming, that dominance can continue.
“In any country I haven’t seen any top-class three-year-olds, if you put aside City Of Troy, and I think he still has to prove a bit more. Of the others, they are all good but none of them is top class,” Fabre told the Racing Post.
His Sosie looks the most solid of those at the front of the market, given he’s 3/3 on the expected soft going, 2/2 at the 1m4f trip and 3/3 from at the track. Look De Vega has yet to prove he stays 1m4f, while Los Angeles has been too close to Ambiente Friendly twice over 1m4f.
The Prix de Niel winner seems certain to run a big race but he’s taken on with AL RIFFA, who could end Japan’s lengthy quest for an Arc win despite never having raced in ‘the land of the rising sun’.
Bought by Japanese owner Masaaki Matsushima days before his five length romp in the 1m4f Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin, he will be the mount of legendary rider Yutaka Take.
Off the track since that August success, Joseph O’Brien’s four-year-old has some very intriguing form in the book that suggests he could come up trumps in an unusually wide-open renewal.
Exhibit A would be his length second to the now 124-rated City Of Troy in the 1m2f Group 1 Coral Eclipse, when he condeded 10lbs in weight-for-age allowance.
That Sandown spectacle has worked out nicely with City Of Troy bolting up in the Group 1 International next time out and third Ghostwriter running very creditably in the same race and the Irish Champion Stakes subsequently.
Another standout silver medal on Al Riffa’s CV comes in the shape of his three-quarters of a length second to subsequent impressive Arc winner Ace Impact in last year’s 1m2f Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville.
Those runs add up to some fine form over 1m2f on soft ground and having romped home in a Group 1 on his first ever tilt at 1m4f last time out he could well prove better again at Longchamp, where there’s no three-year-old of the ilk of City Of Troy or Ace Impact to give weight to.
Fantastic Moon can make a better fist of second Arc tilt
Despite the competitive nature of this year’s race there are few truly enticing each-way propositions at a working man’s price. One possible exception is FANTASTIC MOON, who can improve upon his 11th in last year’s running.
That effort was evidently below what was expected from a horse that had been sent off 12/1 and remains the son of a one-time Arc favourite Sea The Moonl, who missed the 2014 running through injury.
Prior to that run, the German-trained four-year-old had won the Prix Niel, a trial over the Arc course and distance. That Niel run was likely a second-choice given he had been a non-runner in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden Baden a week prior.
This year Fantastic Moon contested and won the German race, which was Torquator Tasso’s springboard to Arc glory in 2021. The inference is that this time around, with his preparation having gone more to plan, he can go a lot closer at Longchamp.
