The 2025 Ascot Gold Cup represents a chance for flat racing’s next dominant stayer to present themselves following the retirement of two-time winner Kyprios at the end of May.
It could be a fresh chance at Royal Meeting glory for Trawlerman, Sweet William and Coltrane, who finished second, third and fifth behind Aidan O’Brien’s superstar in the 2024 edition.
However, the betting suggests the trio could be vulnerable to new kids on the block in these elite level marathons, with O’Brien’s Illinois favourite and French raider Candelari not far behind him in the betting. Preference is for the unexposed, exciting latter.
Best bet: Candelari to win
@ 3/1
Bet on the latest horse racing odds at Betzone.
Ascot Gold Cup: Candelari has the most upside of the market principles
For all it may be that stepping up in trip beyond 2m will prove the making of Illinois, the 11/8 on offer makes scant appeal while memories of him failing to convert in neck defeats in the Great Voltigeur and the St Leger last season remain fresh.
The son of Galileo was even headed inside the last 2f before winning the Group 2 Qatar Prix Chaudenay at Longchamp as 2/5 last October. Doubts have to remain about his ability to get the job done in a finish and they make him easy to swerve in favour of CANDELARI.
After only five runs under rules Francis Henri-Graffard’s Frankel gelding has already exceeded Illinois in winning a Group 1, having landed the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp in May.
Rated 2lb superior to the favourite and level with Trawlerman on 118 after that effort, he beat Double Major on his first start of the season – a horse that went on to finish one and half lengths ahead of his John-&-Thady-Gosden trained rival in the Dubai Gold Cup next time out.
Although Candelari has yet to face ground faster than good-to-soft, his pedigree suggests there need be no concerns around the good-to-firm ground or faster he will face at Ascot.
His sire Frankel has a 42% strike-rate with his progeny on the likely going, while his dam Barathea has her best strike-rate of any going as a broodmare on good-to-firm (27%).
The promise of further improvement on just his sixth career start makes the lightly-raced French raider a great bet against a favourite with question marks and rivals that have proven not quite good enough on this stage in recent runnings. Let us see what the Ascot Gold Cup brings.
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