US Open Golf 2023 Predictions: Two 20/1+ tips at LA Country Club

Genesis Invitational form could be key to finding the US Open winner

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9 months ago

The 2023 US Open begins this Thursday June 15 on the North Course at the Los Angeles Country Club and the usual suspects Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are again at the top of the betting, along with PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka.

Hunting for value at north of the 20/1 mark isn’t helped by the fact this course last hosted a PGA Tour event in 1940, but our US Open predictions are focusing on form at the only other course in the current rotation designed by North Course architects George Clifford Thomas Jr and William P. Bell.

US Open Golf 2023 Predictions

Max Homa @ 22/1
Collin Morikawa @ 25/1

Each-way terms: 8 places, 1/5 odds

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In-form Homa’s Riviera resume hints he could end Major mediocrity

Scottie Scheffler is the only golfer to have carded more PGA Tour top 10 finishes than Max Homa during the 2022/23 campaign and the world number one is 6/1 favourite in the US Open betting.

Homa has eight finishes of tenth or better to his name this term, equal to 17/2 joint-second favourite Jon Rahm and 16/1 shout Xander Schauffele. So far bold showings at Majors have almost entirely eluded the Californian, but that won’t last if he keeps playing this consistently.

What makes him particularly eye-catching for this particular edition of the US Open is his form on the aforementioned Thomas and Bell collaboration, Riviera Country Club, home of the Genesis Invitational.
Similarities between the types of challenge posed by the two courses are to be expected and that makes Homa’s form figures in recent editions of the Genesis read very well: T5-1-T10-2.

The former University of California, Berkley golfer has previous on the North Course too. He still holds the course record with a round of 61 he shot in a PAC 12 College Championship tournament back in 2013.

Tip: Max Homa @ 22/1

Morikawa a must have for your squad if reaching first tee at LACC

This one comes with a health warning, but if Collin Morikawa deems himself fit to line up at the Los Angeles Country Club then there are a host of reasons to make him a compelling play at 25/1.

He withdrew after suffering a back spasm before the start of his final round at the Memorial Tournament at the start of June, having been two shots off the lead.

Like Homa, Morikawa has strong recent form in the Genesis Invitational, carding a T6 this year and a T2 in 2022. However, unlike Homa he’s a two-time Major winner with a further five top ten finishes in the big four tournaments over the last three years, including T4 and T5 at the last two US Opens.

The US Open moves around from course to course each year but it continues to reward golfers performing well on certain metrics nonetheless.

Over the past 10 editions the winner’s average ranking that season for greens in regulation (GIR) was four going into the tournament, while their mean ranking for shots gained: tee-to-green was even higher at 3.25, as per Steven Rawlings at betting.betfair.com. Morikawa ranks seventh and fifth on those two metrics.

Finally, the 26-year-old has previous for shining on this course, having won all four of his matches in the Walker Cup (the Ryder Cup for amateurs) in 2017.

Tip: Collin Morikawa @ 25/1