The concept of a ‘new manager bounce’ is often tossed around amongst fans and pundits alike, despite there being no real proof that the phenomenon is real, or that its impact is overstated if it is. With that said, fervent disciples of the idea will point at Everton’s 1-0 victory over Arsenal this weekend as concrete proof of its existence.
Based on xG, the appointment of Sean Dyche would appear to have made an instant difference at Goodison Park, with Everton recording their best attacking xG of the season according to understat.com with 2.09 as they claimed a deserved win over table-topping Arsenal. The Gunners also set a seasonal record, albeit it for the wrong reasons, with a measly 0.69xG their lowest attacking output of the campaign.
Mikel Arteta’s side remain in pole position in the league, however, as nearest rivals Man City lost away at Tottenham. Spurs 1.42xG saw them deservedly run out as winners, limiting City to just 0.77, with Erling Haaland remarkably ending the game with 0.0xG.
Despite going down to 10 men with just under 20 minutes to go, Manchester United closed the gap on the two sides ahead of them with a 2-1 victory that was a pretty fair reflection of a game that finished 2.07-1.38 on xG. Palace were once again losers on the expected goals metric, and slipped into the bottom three on expected points. They are not, as yet, far enough clear to be safe and the fans at Selhurst Park are likely in for an anxious few months.
Just above Palace in the expected points table are Nottingham Forest, who were fortunate to beat Leeds having accumulated just 0.33xG. Brennan Johnson’s goal came from a chance worth only 0.05xG and Jesse Marsch can count his side unlucky having created 1.12 worth of chances. Leeds sit near the top-half on expected points and have won their last three games on the expected goals metric, although this will be of little consolation to Marsch, who was sacked yesterday. A new manager should see some regression to the mean in terms of results, and Leeds are confidently expected to pull clear of danger.
It was perhaps a surprise that Marsch got his marching orders before Nathan Jones, whose bizarre post-match press conference on Saturday had all of the hallmarks of a man who had lost the plot and his players. His Saints side were thumped 3-0 by Brentford and can have few complaints about the result given an xG score of 2.67-0.64.
Jones will do well to survive if Saints lose their relegation six-pointer at home against a resurgent Wolves this weekend. The men from Molineux broke 2xG for the first time this season, recording a league-high 2.63 against a sorry Liverpool (1.30) side that lost a third consecutive game on expected goals.
Elsewhere, Newcastle (1.23) and West Ham (1.26) played out a very fair 1-1 draw, while Leicester (2.5) were full value for their win over Aston Villa (1.5), even if the 4-2 final score flattered them a little.
Chelsea’s 1.41xG should have been enough for them to beat Fulham (0.49) in the Friday night game, but the profligate Blues once again couldn’t get the job done. Graham Potter’s side have won their last four games on xG, but only have five actual points to show for it. Still, there are signs that Potter is starting to get the processes right at Stamford Bridge, and results should soon turn in their favour.
