The wraps are now officially off for teams across the top four divisions of English football and while there will be plenty more comings and goings before the end of the transfer window, bettors now have some form to go on.
Last weekend xG pointed us in the direction of a couple of profitable wagers and the metric is heavily involved in two of our three selections this time around.
Weekend English football best bets
Aston Villa to beat Arsenal (draw no bet) @ 2/1
Burton vs Stevenage – Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20
Newport to beat Accrington @ 13/10
Bet on the latest English Football odds at Betzone
Gunners in the crosshairs against last season’s bogeymen
For all that the consensus seems to be Arsenal may have enough to prise the Premier League title from Manchester City’s grasp this season they’re no kind of bet at 17/20 away to Aston Villa.
The Villans were one of just two sides (along with West Ham) to do the double over the Gunners in 2023/24, beating Mikel Arteta’s side to-nil home and away.
Unai Emery hasn’t lost any key players during the summer and it will be a month before his squad begin to be stretched by the demands of the Champions League.
Villa are 14/5 underdogs to win, but preference is for the 2/1 about victory for the Villa Park outfit with the draw no bet concession thrown in.
Tip: Aston Villa to beat Arsenal (draw no bet) @ 2/1
Back Brewers and the Boro to land generous overs odds
The xG metric pointed us in the direction of two winning wagers in last week’s EFL tips and Stevenage’s visit to Burton Albion is fancied to reward the same line of inquiry.
Both Albion and the Broadhall Way side are amongst the top five in League One for average xG with 3.63 and 3.87 respectively – yet over 2.5 goals can be backed at 21/20.
That looks a gift given Burton are the nascent division’s joint-top scorers on five goals, but also have its joint-leakiest defence, having shipped six in their opening two games
Tip: Burton vs Stevenage – Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20
Exiles can rock Rodney Parade for the second time in a week
Continuing in an xG vein Newport look worth siding with for the second week running after they landed us the odds with a 3-1 comeback win over Doncaster last Saturday.
That victory over a team fancied for the League Two title in some quarters snapped a 10-game losing streak dating back to last season and was also the first league victory for new boss Nelson Jardim.
Back at Rodney Parade for the second weekend in a row, the mood should be buoyant to say the least and the Welsh side are taken to prove too strong for Accrington.
County have the second-highest xG in the division (4.36), but even more impressively they’ve outscored it with five across their opening two games. Their visitors have conceded seven times already this term – the most in the fourth tier.
