The EPL’s fifth gameweek features a trio of big games, starting with the Merseyside derby on Saturday lunchtime, followed by Manchester United vs Chelsea later the same day and Arsenal vs Manchester City on Sunday afternoon.
Our suggestion is to savour those fixtures for the spectacle alone, with our best bets coming elsewhere in the shape of taking on two out-of-form road favourites and backing a well-rested side to shade it against visitors on the come-down from midweek European highs.
Forest in-flux look iffy favourites for Turf Moor assignment
Nottingham Forest have shipped six goals in two losses since Ange Postecoglou replaced Nuno Espirito Santo in the dugout and look worth opposing as 6/5 favourites away to Burnley.
The Clarets have beaten Sunderland 2-0 and came within a few minutes’ injury time of holding Liverpool 0-0 in their two Turf Moor outings since returning to the Premier League.
At 6/5 with the draw no bet concession they hold plenty of appeal against visitors who have drawn a blank in their last two top flight outings and are having to adjust to a new way of playing football that is the polar opposite of their former manager’s pragmatic approach.
Burnley to beat Nottm Forest (draw no bet)
@ 6/5
Cherries can shade it after Newcastle’s lord mayor’s show
Bournemouth thrashed Newcastle 4-1 at St James’ Park in January and Andoni Iraola’s men look a strong bet to repeat the dose when the Magpies visit the south coast on Sunday at 29/20.
The hosts have made light of selling three of last season’s first-choice back four to sit fourth in the early Premier League table, while they also have the fifth-highest xG-for and third-lowest xG against in the division.
Newcastle are outright bottom on the latter stat but the well-rested Cherries have three players in the EPL’s top five for average shots per game and are backed to find a way through visitors who will be coming down off the Thursday night high of hosting Barcelona on Tyneside.
Bournemouth to beat Newcastle
@ 29/20
Wearsiders are value against Villa side yet find their rhythm
Aston Villa are 11/10 favourites away to Sunderland despite being winless and goalless after their first four league games. On that basis Unai Emery’s side need to be taken on.
Sunderland are priced up at a dismissive 51/20 for victory despite winning their first two home games back at the top table and holding Crystal Palace 0-0 away last weekend.
The 27/20 about the home win with the draw no bet concession looks a great bet against visitors bound to have one eye on their Europa League game against Bologna next Thursday, with the additional safety net sensible against a side that still have a lot of quality in the ranks.
Sunderland to beat Aston Villa (draw no bet)
@ 27/20
For more Betzone news, click here.
