The xG Review – April 21st – April 23rd 2023

Our trader looks back on last weekend's games from an xG perspective

Steve, Senior Trader

Steve, Senior Trader

10 months ago

Arsenal 3–3 Southampton
xG: 2.5-1.3

A vintage Premier League game that Arsenal deserved to win according to fbref.com. The Gunners are having a serious wobble at the moment, but their performance here was enough to warrant 3 points. That will be of little consolation to the league leaders, however, who shipped 3 goals from just 1.3xG against. Such a stat does not bode well for a trip to Man City in the week. Southampton would probably have taken a point before kick-off, and given the xG, but will be kicking themselves having seemingly had the game won.

Fulham 2–1 Leeds United
xG: 1.7-0.8

A single goal defeat for Leeds, who just about deserved this result on xG, accruing 0.9 less than their hosts. Illan Meslier continues to ship more goals than expected, and the Frenchman will have to bear a large portion of the blame should Javi Gracia’s side end up in the bottom three. His error resulted in a 0.96xG chance for Andreas Pereira, deciding what was otherwise a pretty even game.

Snooze-fest at Selhurst Park

Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton
xG: 0.5-0.4

A very fair result which doesn’t warrant much comment. The combined 0.9xG was the joint second lowest in the league this season. The best chance of the game fell to Dominic Calvert-Lewin, but was still only worth a pitiful 0.09xG.

Brentford 1–1 Aston Villa
xG: 2.7 – 1.5

Brentford appeared unlucky not to end Aston Villa’s fine run of form on Saturday. The Bees had 16 shots in all, with the best of those falling to Kevin Schade, who somehow spurned a 0.85 effort when it seemed easier to score. In fairness, that chance came from a howler from away goalkeeper Robin Olsen, and a draw was probably fair on the balance of attacking processes.

Liverpool 3–2 Nott’ham Forest
xG: 2.8-0.9

A deserved win for Liverpool, who clocked up nearly 2 more xG than their opponents. Forest continue to struggle for form and are now firmly in the bottom three. Diogo Jota continues to return to his clinical best, notching his second from a chance worth just 0.05xG, having scored a 0.78xG header to open the scoring.

Leicester City 2–1 Wolves
xG: 2.4-0.9

Leicester recorded a huge win here and on raw xG it was well deserved. On closer inspection, however, the Foxes were somewhat flattered, with 0.79 of their total coming from the penalty spot, and another 0.41 coming from a chance that looked offside in the build up. A draw would have been fair here, although Wolves attacking process remains very poor, and they will need to step up if they are to avoid another relegation battle next season.

Bournemouth 0–4 West Ham
xG: 1.5-2.4

A deserved win for West Ham, albeit one that flattered them on xG. Bournemouth’s defending from crosses left plenty to be desired, and the David Moyes’ side were absolutely ruthless, taking a big step towards safety in the process. Pablo Fornals’ outrageous finish was given a high-looking 0.77xG from FBRef, a number that flatters the away side even more. In their defence, over half of Bournemouth’s xG came when they were 4-0 down and the Hammers had taken their foot off the gas.

Brilliant Newcastle The Weekend’s Star Performers

Newcastle Utd 6–1 Tottenham
xG: 3.7-1.0

There was no doubting Newcastle’s superiority over Spurs on Sunday, as the Magpies blew their Champions League rivals away in the first 22 minutes. The ‘keeping of Hugo Lloris left plenty to be desired, but there can be no doubt that the home side were full value for their win. It’s almost impossible for xG to keep pace with actual goals in instances like this, and 3.7 is still an extremely impressive display of attacking potency by Eddie Howe’s side.