Sevilla vs Roma predictions: Europa League Final betting tips

Jose Mourinho has the blueprint for more continental silverware with Roma



1 year ago

The 2022/23 Europa League Final sees two of UEFA club competition’s most notable unbeaten records collide. Sevilla have won all six deciders they’ve contested in Europe’s second-tier club competition, while Roma boss Jose Mourinho has a 100% win-rate from five continental finals.

Roma are 9/5 underdogs to win the tournament in normal time, with Jose Luis Mendilibar’s Rojiblancos 13/8 favourites to extend their record as the competition’s most successful club. Our Sevilla vs Roma predictions suspect this will be a managerial mismatch that’ll only end one way.

Sevilla vs Roma betting tips

Roma to win @ 9/5
Roma to win 1-0 correct score @ 6/1
Red card in the match @ 11/5

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Mendilibar vs Mourinho feels like a battle with only one winner

As referred to above, Jose Mourinho has a 100% record in European finals going into this encounter (we’re not counting European Super Cups), with all five won during normal time.

His UEFA Cup and Champions League wins with Porto (2002/03 and 2003/4 respectively) are a long time ago now, as is arguably his masterpiece, the 2008/09 UCL Final win over peak Pep Guardiola Barcelona.

More relevant to the match in front of us is the fact that the lugubrious tactician steered Roma to victory in last year’s Europa Conference League, rope-a-doping the Feyenoord side that went on romp the Eredivisie this term in the decider.

By contrast this is a first European showpiece for opposite number Mendilibar a coach more used to battling, and occasionally succumbing to, relegation in La Liga. It’s also his first final of any sort as a manager.

Underdogs at the odds, but huge favourites in terms of the pedigree of their puppet-master, Roma look decent value to get their hands on the trophy without recourse to extra time.

Tip: Roma to win @ 9/5

Europa Conference Final blueprint suggests Giallorossi win won’t be pretty

Roma ground out their victory in last year’s Europe Conference League Final, maintaining their discipline to allow Feyenoord plenty of harmless possession either side of the game’s only goal.

The omens for another 1-0 success in this year’s Europa League Final are plentiful, with the Giallorossi winning through to the decider following a 1-0 aggregate win over Bayer Leverkusen. They also recorded clean sheets home and away against Real Sociedad in the round of 16.

Mourinho can call upon the services of the vast majority of the players that snared his fifth European final win last season, including GK Rui Patricio, back three Gianluca Mancini, Chris Smalling and Roger Ibanez, midfielder Brian Cristante, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Tammy Abraham.

Sevilla and their manager are not to be dismissed lightly, having accounted for Manchester United and Juventus en route to this stage. However, they’ve yet to record a win in this year’s competition away from Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizuain and that’s not expected to change here.

Tip: Roma to win 1-0 correct score @ 6/1

Red cards are never far away when the Rojiblancos are involved

Sevilla have been unusually prone to finishing games with less players than they started them with this season and the gravity of being in a European Final may well magnify this susceptibility, especially if they’re being frustrated by their opponents, as we suspect they will be.

No fewer than nine separate players have seen red for the club in 2022/23, with left-back Marcos Acuna and defensive midfielder Pape Gueye receiving their marching orders four and three times respectively across all competitions.

There has been at least one sending off in 19 of Sevilla’s 56 games this term and their opponents have often succumbed to the red mist too, copping at least one red card on no fewer than 10 occasions they’ve faced Mendilibar’s men across the campaign as a whole.

Tip: Red card in the match @ 11/5