This year’s Europa Conference League Final pits last year’s beaten finalists Fiorentina against Greek titans Olympiacos, the conquerors of Aston Villa.
La Viola are 11/8 favourites to win the competition without recourse to extra time or penalties, but there’s plenty to like about the Greeks as 2/1 underdogs on home soil.
Olympiacos vs Fiorentina predictions
Ayoub El Kaabi anytime goalscorer @ 17/10
Bet on the latest Europa Conference League odds at Betzone
Greeks can make the most of ‘home’ advantage to rubbish underdog status
Olympiacos are 2/1 underdogs to win the final inside normal time – a price which looks too big for several reasons: The location of the showpiece, a form line through Ferencvaros, their manager’s continental pedigree and the relative strength of the opposition they’ve beaten to get there.
The final will be played in Athens so, while it won’t technically be a home game for the Piraeus outfit, it’s likely to feel like one.
Both the Greeks and Fiorentina have played Ferencvaros twice in the Europa Conference League this season – The Viola drew home and away while Olympiacos won both fixtures.
The latter have been managed by Jose Luis Mendilibar, who won the Europa League with Sevilla against Italian opposition two seasons ago, since February.
Mendilibar’s ability to find a winning formula in continental competition saw his team past Fenerbahce and Aston Villa in previous two rounds with the English side beaten convincingly. Those rivals have to rate bigger scalps than Victoria Plzen and Club Bruges – Fiorentina’s last two victims.
Villa-killer El Kaabi can continue rich vein of form in continental competitions
Moroccan forward Ayoub El Kaabi has been a bit of a revelation this season – his first for Olympiakos after spells in his homeland, China, Turkey and Qatar.
The 30-year-old has struck 32 times in 45 games for the Greek club in 2023/24, with his continental endeavours particularly impressive. El Kaabi has struck 15 goals in 18 outings across the Europa League and Europa Conference League this term.
He bagged five times across the two-legs of the semi-final against Aston Villa and should find opportunities to net again against a Fiorentina side that conceded three times in their own last four tie against Club Bruges.
Tip: Ayoub El Kaabi anytime goalscorer @ 17/10
Rap-sheet of high-scoring ties make the overs a value play in Athens
The under/over 2.5 goals market for the final makes unders the strong favourite at 4/6, but both sides have been involved in their fair share of high-scoring encounters in Europe this season and over 2.5 goals looks an attractive proposition at 23/20.
Some 12 of Olympiacos 19 Europa League and Conference League ties have seen at least three netted, while four of their last six continental outings have produced five goals or more.
La Viola have also shown a tendency to become involved in slug fests when faced with game opposition, with 2-2 draws against Genk and Ferencvaros to their name, along with a 4-3 home win away to Maccabi Haifa and a 3-2 win over Club Bruges in the first leg of their semi.
