Manchester United are 8/13 favourites to lift the 2023 Carabao Cup, but the Red Devils will face a stern test from well rested 13/10 underdogs Newcastle, who welcome back the massively influential Bruno Guimaraes from suspension for Sunday’s final.
Our Man Utd vs Newcastle betting tips are looking for the best ways to be with the Magpies as they go in search of their first piece of silverware since winning the Championship in 2016/17.
Man Utd vs Newcastle betting tips
Return of Toon talisman a huge boost for Newcastle
The Magpies have experienced a slight dip in form over the last three games with draws against struggling West Ham and Bournemouth and a 2-0 home loss to Liverpool.
However, that run coincided with a three-game suspension for the brilliant Brazilian midfielder Bruno Guimaraes, who returns to the fray at Wembley. Newcastle have yet to lose a single game he has started this season, winning 14 and drawing seven when he made Eddie Howe’s XI.
Guimares played 78 minutes when Howe’s men took an EPL point at Old Trafford back in October – one of only four occasions United have failed to win in 21 games on home soil this term.
United, even in their current rich vein of form, should struggle to get the better of Newcastle again at Wembley, especially with Thursday’s European exploits against Barcelona in their legs.
The Magpies have conceded eight fewer top-flight goals than any other side in 2022/23 and should stay stingy even with backup stopper Loris Karius in for the suspended Nick Pope.
With seven days rest under their belts and their talismanic leader back in the side, they have every chance of nicking the win.
Betting tip: Newcastle to win the tie @ 13/10
Recent head-to-heads suggest a low-scoring affair
EFL Cup Finals have been dour affairs in recent years, with a total of four goals bagged across the last four editions. Three of those came in Man City’s 2-1 win over Aston Villa in 2020.
City beat Chelsea on penalties after a 0-0 stalemate in 2019 and beat Tottenham 1-0 in 2021, while last year’s showpiece saw Chelsea lose on spot-kicks again, this time after a 0-0 draw with Liverpool.
The last two meetings between the United’s of Manchester and Newcastle have both rewarded under 2.5 goals backers and that trend won’t be upended in this Wembley instalment.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5
Back next best thing to De Bruyne to lay on a Newcastle goal
Imagine how many goals Erling Haaland could score this season if City signed Keiran Trippier.
Only City maestro Kevin De Bruyne has created more EPL big chances (defined by the Premier League as ‘providing an opportunity where the receiving player would reasonably be expected to score and manages to get a shot away’ than the Magpies full-back this term.
Trippier also averages four crosses per game in the top flight in 2022/23, with De Bruyne next best on 2.4. That has to make him decent value to lay on a goal at odds in excess of 4/1.
Betting tip: Kieran Trippier to assist a goal @ 9/2