England vs Spain: England head into the UEFA Women’s European Championship Final as 19/10 underdogs to retain the title they won on home soil three years ago. Their opponents, Spain – the reigning World Cup winners and current Nations League champions — are 4/11 favourites to claim the crown.
The two sides have already met twice this year in the Nations League, with each team securing narrow home wins. However, a closer look at those encounters suggests that Spain may have the edge going into the final at Basel’s St. Jakob-Park.
Spain to win and over 2.5 goals
@ 9/5
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England vs Spain: England can find the net to provide hope of retaining the title
Thrashings of overmatched Holland (4-0) and Wales (6-1) in the group stage aside, the Lionesses have routinely fallen short of fluency against good teams at this tournament.
Despite that they’ve managed to find the net in normal time in every single game, having bagged a late consolation in the 2-1 defeat to France in the sections as well as late equalisers against Sweden and Italy in the knockout rounds.
Sarina Wiegman’s side should be able to find the net against Spain too having done so home and away in the Nations League. La Roja have yet to concede at this year’s tournament but gave up huge chances against Switzerland in the quarters and Germany in the semis.
Stats tell clearer story than scores in sides’ recent showdowns
On the face of the finalists’ two Nations League meetings earlier this year, the final ought to be a fair bit closer than Spain’s normal time win odds of 3/4 suggest. England avenged their World Cup Final loss with a 1-0 Wembley win and took the lead in a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture.
However, La Roja won the shot count 20-8 in London and 19-4 in Catalunya while also dominating possession with 58% and 62% margins respectively. Those statistics reflect a margin of superiority over the Lionesses which should see them home with the trophy.
England vs Spain: Lionesses’ backline didn’t look any surer against the Italians
If England have lacked fluency in attack for much of the tournament, their unconvincing defence is what has put them in the position of having to rely on last-gasp scoring heroics to get this far.
France and Sweden have both netted two first-half goals against them in Switzerland, while Italy will rue missing at least one guilt-edged chance for a second in their semi-final.
That rearguard will be tested more than ever against comfortably the best team in the tournament and seems certain to be found wanting on the evidence of their last five games.
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