England vs Slovenia predictions: Best bets for the Group C decider

All the stats point to a low-scoring clash that England could just shade

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1 month ago

England are just 1/3 to secure Euro 2024 Group C top spot with a victory over 15/2 underdogs Slovenia, despite being nowhere near their best in Tuesday’s 1-1 all draw with Denmark.

There are certainly better value bets on offer for punters weighing up the eventualities and we’ve selected a brace of them, alongside the only correct score shout that makes sense.

England vs Slovenia predictions

Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20

Time of 1st goal under 30 mins @ 10/11

England to win 1-0 @ 5/1

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England incoherence and qualification significance point to dour spectacle

Under 2.5 goals looks fair value at 17/20 in a clash that looks nailed on to be low-scoring for a variety of reasons.

For starters every Group C game so far has produced two goals or less and both England and Slovenia have been deeply underwhelming on the shots stats.

Scotland are the only side at the finals to have averaged less shots per game than Gareth Southgate’s side (8.5). Slovenia meanwhile average more (11), but only Scotland and Serbia average less than their three shots on target per game.

Tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20

Value in early goal with prompt openers a feature of the tournament so far

A pleasing aspect of Euro 2024 has been how quickly the games have tended to come to life, with 19 of the first 26 games featuring at least one goal inside the first half hour.

Group C and England’s games within it have been no exception, with three of the first four all seeing at least one side net with the first 18 minutes. England have opened the scoring in both their matches in the section to date notching in the 13th and 18th respectively.

Tip: Time of 1st goal under 30 mins @ 10/11

England have the upside to grind Group C victory with the narrowest of successes

The 4/11 about an England win offers zero in terms of excitement given the travails of the Three Lions over the first couple of games, but the feeling remains they’ll scrape it.

Gareth Southgate’s did secure the 1-0 win over Serbia that Slovenia couldn’t see out when they let two points slip away with a late, late Luka Jovic equaliser in Munich.

A repeat of that scoreline can be backed at 5/1 and while it’s hard to imagine England scoring more than that, they have the quality in terms of playing staff to facilitate Southgate shuffling the deck in any number of fruitful ways.

The Slovenians have only managed to notch once in each of their Group C games so far, while England would have had two clean sheets were it not for Morten Hjulmand’s slightly fortuitous 30-yard hit for Denmark last time out.

Tip: England to win 1-0 @ 5/1