Champions League last 16 tips: Misfiring Munich, PSG value, Madrid march on

Paris Saint-Germain look like one of the bets of the round away to Real Sociedad



5 months ago

The first slate of Champions League round-of-16 second legs play out this Tuesday and Wednesday as Lazio, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Manchester City look to make good on first-leg leads to book their quarter-final places.

Our best bets take differing views on the sides that contested the 2020 showpiece and find in favour of the 2022 winners with the additional of an over-2.5-goals kicker.

Champions League round of 16 tips

Lazio (+2) to beat Bayern Munich @ 1/1

Paris Saint-Germain to beat Real Sociedad @ 7/4

Real Madrid to beat RB Leipzig & Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10

Bet on the latest Champions League odds at Betzone

Biancocelesti can make it tough for misfiring Munchen machine

Bayern Munich are just 1/4 for victory as they look to overturn a 1-0 first-leg deficit against Lazio at the Allianz Arena. It’s a price that looks far too short given both that result and their recent form more generally – they must be taken on.

Die Roten have won just one of their last five outings in all competitions, with that victory over RB Leipzig requiring a 90th minute winner in a match in which the Leipzig won the shot count 9-8.

Lazio have been far from brilliant away this term, losing to Feyenoord and Atletico Madrid on the road in the UCL group stage. However, Mauricio Sarri’s men played out a blueprint to stifle Bayern in Rome a fortnight ago and look backable at even money to win with a two-goal handicap head start.

Backing the visitors on the (+2) handicap added up to a winning bet in all three of Bayern’s Champions League home games this term and it would also have paid out on three of the last four Bundesliga home games.

Tip: Lazio (+2) to beat Bayern Munich @ 1/1

PSG overpriced for away success against a La Real side at a loss

It’s impressive how quickly odds compilers have lost respect for Paris Saint-Germain since they swapped their Galactico gamble for a more considered approach. A couple of seasons ago it would have been inconceivable that they could be backed at 7/4 to win away to Real Sociedad.

PSG have only lost three times this season. Yes, two of those defeats came in their three Champions League away games so far, but they’ve not lost since mid-November now, winning of 13 of 18 in all competitions including five of their last six on the road.

The clincher here is that their hosts are in miserable form. La Real have won just once in their last nine outings on all fronts and lost four of their last six. Even the sole win in that sequence came via a 93rd minute winner against a Mallorca side that were down to 10 men for 45 minutes-plus.

Backing the French outfit to win with the draw-no-bet concession yields very decent odds of evens but, given their hosts poor form, shooting for the PSG win at 7/4 looks like a chance worth taking.

Tip: Paris Saint-Germain to beat Real Sociedad @ 7/4

Madrid last-eight bound but Leipzig can contribute to the spectacle

Real Madrid landed the odds for us away to RB Leipzig in the first leg and they’re 4/7 favourites to win the second leg at Santiago Bernabeu, where they’ve won 15 and drawn three of their 18 outings so far in the campaign.

Ultimately RB Leipzig are unlikely to upset the applecart having lost five of their last 10 games in all competitions and six of their last 11 away fixtures on all fronts, but they can contribute to a high scoring encounter. That gives the 11/10 on a Real win and over 2.5 goals an attractive play.

Seven of RB’s last eight road assignments have produced over 2.5 goals, with five of those also landing over the 3.5 goal line – including their 3-2 loss to Manchester City at the Etihad.

Real themselves have seen at least three goals scored in six of their last 10 at the Bernabeu and are more than capable of outgunning their guests.

Tip: Real Madrid to beat RB Leipzig & Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10