Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid predictions: Champions League Final tips

Real Madrid are worthy favourites, but Borussia Dortmund will run them close

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3 weeks ago

Real Madrid are just 3/10 to win the Champions League Final and 8/13 to do so inside normal time, but while underdogs Borussia Dortmund are a whole 4/1 to win in 90 minutes and 12/5 to lift the trophy this will be no walk in the park for Los Blancos.

Recent runnings of this particular showpiece have been uniformly tight and both Dortmund and Real have provided evidence that they can be pragmatic when there’s plenty at stake this term.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid predictions

Under 2.5 goals @ 23/20

Time of first match goal – Over 30 mins @ 5/4

Real Madrid to win 1-0 @ 7/1

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Years have passed since it last rained goals in UCL decider

The underlying implication of Madrid’s 8/13 favouritism in the normal time win/draw/win market is that they will win comfortably enough – making their class edge count against inferior opposition.

However, UCL finals are very rarely high-scoring affairs and that gives odds of 23/20 about under 2.5 goals a very fair feel. Seven of the last 10 saw fewer than three goals netted in normal time, including each of the past five editions.

Nine of Dortmund’s dozen outings in this season’s competition have rewarded under 2.5 goals backers, while Real have also seen three of their last six UCL outings end up south of the line – That could have been four where it not for Joselu’s last gasp brace against Bayern Munich in Madrid.

Tip 1: Under 2.5 goals @ 23/20

Surprisingly good value in a typically-cagey first half hour

Given we’re all aboard the good ship under 2.5 goals and expecting a relatively close-fought contest as a result, there’s further value to be had about the first 30 minutes remaining goalless.

There has been just one first-half goal scored across the last four Champions League Finals, with Kai Havertz’s strike for Chelsea in the 2021/22 decider notched on 42 minutes.

Underdogs Dortmund would be expected to be the first side to ship here, but they’ve conceded only one goal inside the opening half in their 12 UCL games so far this season.

Tip 2: Time of first match goal – Over 30 mins @ 5/4

Narrowest of victories the way to play win for favourites Real

Real Madrid being 8/13 favourites for victory inside normal time and us expecting a game of less than 2.5 goals means correct score wagers come into play. Both 1-0 and 2-0 to Carlo Ancelotti’s side rate attractive wagers at the 7/1 mark.

The former gets the nod here, not least because that’s been the scoreline in each of the past four Champions League deciders.

Tip 3: Real Madrid to win 1-0 @ 7/1