Stuttering Premier League leaders Arsenal take on a seemingly resurgent Manchester City at the Emirates on Wednesday evening knowing a loss would hand top spot to their opponents.
City are narrow 19/10 match betting favourites, but that just makes taking them on more rewarding, even if a certain under appreciated Citizens goal threat looks value to find the net.
Arsenal vs Man City predictions
Arsenal to win – Draw No Bet @ 11/10
Half with the most goals – 2nd Half @ 21/20
Rodri to score anytime @ 10/1
The (away) table doesn’t lie
Man City have only got the sixth best away Premier League points tally this season, having drawn two and lost three of their 10 road games so far. Across those games they’ve scored just 15 times, compared to 41 goals in their 12 league home games.
In terms of points-per-away-outing their 17 averages out at 1.7 per game, second to Arsenal (2.3). Nonetheless, their record on their travels is far from as intimidating as might be expected.
Both teams were at similar strengths when City squeaked past Arsenal 1-0 at the Etihad in the FA Cup recently and that surely gives the Gunners every chance here given their visitors are far more mortal on their travels.
Mikel Arteta’s table toppers haven’t lost a home league game all season (winning eight of their 10) and they should be able to claim at least a point against a City side who have lost their last three away games in all competitions.
Arsenal have a game in hand over the reigning champions. A point from this fixture will more than suffice. As a result, Draw No Bet at odds-against feels the right way to oppose the visitors.
Our betting tip: Arsenal to win – Draw No Bet @ 11/10
Back with more after this short break
Both sides’ Premier League games have seen more goals scored in the second half than the first this season, making more goals in the second half another odds-against play well worth considering.
City games have seen a total of 35 strikes before the interval compared to 43 after it. When it comes to Arsenal the margin is less, well, marginal.
Gunners EPL first halves have produced a total of 24 goals this term, in no small part due to them conceding a mere five times before the break across their 21 matches to date.
That compares with a total of 40 goals scored across the London club’s second stanzas, with their opponents netting 13 times in the concluding 45 minutes.
Our betting tip: Half with the most goals – 2nd Half @ 21/20
Recency bias? Never.
At first glance tipping Rodri to score here may seem like the laziest of recency bias selections.
The Spaniard netted a relatively rare goal in City’s 3-1 win over Aston Villa last time out, but it was only his second of the campaign across all competitions.
However, the former Atletico Madrid man’s confidence is sky high at present, as evidenced by how much persuading it took for him to leave the penalty taking to regular spot-kick man Riyad Mahrez against the Villans.
Among his Etihad colleagues only Erling Haaland (3.6), Kevin De Bruyne (2.2) and Ilkay Gundogan (1.8) average more shots per game in the Premier League than Rodri (1.6) this season.
Not bad considering he’s more often tasked with a deeper-lying midfield brief than his engine room associates by Pep Guardiola.
The 26-year-old has already developed a taste for Arsenal blood having notched home and away against them last term and he looks a nice value scorer shout at a double-figure price.
Our betting tip: Rodri to score anytime @ 10/1
