Ons Jabeur contests her second Wimbledon final twelve months on from her defeat at the hands of Elena Rybakina. The right-hander is 4/9 favourite to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish after avenging that loss en route to this year’s decider.
The Tunisian world number six is ranked 36 places higher than her opponent Marketa Vondrousova but the pair are evenly matched, with their career head-to-head square at three apiece.
Our Vondrousova vs Jabeur predictions rate the latter the likeliest winner on the strength of her grass court pedigree and the standard of opponents eliminated this year, but this won’t be a walk in the park.
Marketa Vondrousoa vs Ons Jabeur tips
Over 22.5 games @ 10/11
Jabeur to win 2-1 @ 13/5
Vondrousova to win the first set @ 29/20
Bet on the latest Wimbledon odds at Betzone
Ladies’ showpiece set to go the distance for third successive year
The 2023 Wimbledon should be a fascinating tussle between arguably the best server and best returner at this year’s All England Championships.
Jabeur sits joint top of the stats charts for first-serve-points won percentage (80) and third for aces (29), while Vondrousova leads the standings for first-serve-receiving points won (139) and break points won (28).
A nip tuck championship match boosts the chances of a third set being required to separate the pair, just as it has been in two of their last three encounters.
Both players have already gone the distance multiple times during the tournament, with three of Jabeur’s last four and two of her Czech opponent’s last three matches requiring three sets to find a winner.
Centre court redemption in the offing for three-time Slam finalist
This will be a third Grand Slam final in a year for Jabeur, after her losing outings in last season’s Wimbledon and US Open showpieces. Her opponent too has a losing Slam final on her resume, albeit four years ago at Roland Garros.
Two Grand Slam finalists, with a 3-3 career head-to-head then, so why pick Jabeur? Especially given Vondrousova has won both their meeting this year…
Firstly, the Tunisian’s grass court pedigree is far more extensive. Since the start of 2021 she’s played 28 times on the green stuff, winning 23 matches.
She also landed grass titles in 2021 and 2022 and beat the Czech on their sole previous meeting on lawn.By contrast this will likely be the first season Vondrousova ends with a winning record on the surface.
Secondly Jabeur has accounted for a much higher calibre of opponent to reach this stage, taking out world number two Aryna Sabalenka, three Rybakina and nine Petra Kvitova – the last two of which were former champions at SW19.
Jessica Pegula is the sole top 10 scalp on her opponent’s list of Wimbledon victims, which included just one other top 20 player.
Czech to make Jabeur sweat before her name is added to the honour roll
Jabeur knows exactly how it feels to lose a Wimbledon final after winning the first set, having done precisely that 12 months ago.
This time around it isn’t that unlikely that it could be her that comes from behind to take the laurels if the last few steps of her journey through the bracket are anything to go by.
Her wins in the third round, quarter final and semi-final all saw her one set from elimination before powering through to victory.
Vondrousova has won the first set in each of their last three encounters and can set up and a fourth epic comeback in five Wimbledon matches for Jabeur in the final.
