Usyk vs Dubois 2 prediction: Consider the less-discussed first fight knockdown

Usyk vs Dubois

Daniel Dubois is 11/4 to avenge his 2023 loss to Oleksandr Usyk

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2 days ago

Usyk vs Dubois: IBO, WBC and WBO heavyweight champion of the world Oleksandr Usyk bids to complete a hat-trick of doubles over elite British heavyweights in a rematch against IBF strap holder Daniel Dubois this Saturday night, having seen off both Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury twice.

The Ukrainian is 3/10 favourite for victory, while ‘Dynamite’ Dubois is 11/4 to avenge the ninth round KO he suffered in their previous meeting – a reverse mired in controversy surrounding the punch he dropped his opponent with in the fifth – contentiously ruled a low blow.

Debate about that knockdown has been reignited in the build-up to their Wembley Stadium undisputed showdown. Less so the decisive flooring, although that less discussed aspect hasn’t escaped the Betzone odds compilers.

Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois 2 prediction
Usyk to win by Oleksandr Usyk to win by KO/TKO/DQ/Technical Decision

@ 5/4

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Usyk vs Dubois: Usyk title fight rematches have largely followed first instalment script

This being the third rematch of Oleksandr Usyk’s reign as heavyweight champion there’s a body of work to refer to in terms of how close his opponents come to flipping the script in part two.

Short answer, not very. Anthony Joshua, was more forthcoming in the second stab at his fellow London 2012 Olympic gold medallist but was ultimately outpointed again. Same deal with Tyson Fury, who arguably improved his showing less from fight one to two than AJ had.

In the Ukranian’s first meeting with Dubois there was undeniably an element of fortune for the champion in the fifth-round Dubois’ right hook that felled him being ruled a low blow.

However even the Greenwich man described that connection as ‘a punch from the gods’ and the Compubox stats show the champion outlanded the challenger in every round that evening on his way to two knockdowns and a stoppage success.

Wiser to Dubois’ power on this occasion, Usyk has the ring IQ to both ensure he isn’t in a position to be caught with a similar shot and to find ways to connect against an opponent’s chin that still has some questions to answer.

Usyk vs Dubois: Dubois obviously improved but air of susceptibility remains

The British fighter swapped trainer Shane McGuigan for Don Charles after that defeat in Wroclaw and has been on an upward curve ever since, securing respectable stoppages against Jarrell Miller, Filip Hrgovic and Joshua.

However, those fights didn’t really give him the opportunity to totally dispel the question marks over his own punch resistance raised by the KO loss to Usyk and the three first-round knockdowns he suffered against Kevin Lerena.

Usyk vs Dubois: Substance of Londoner’s statement success remains in question

Finally the key narrative element of Dubois’ rise from bottle-in-doubt busted flush to heavyweight champion – his devastating fifth round KO of Anthony Joshua – is still pinch-of-salt stuff.

The hype-prone AJ had hardly proven himself back to his glory days on the back of outpointing glorified cruiserweight Jermain Franklin and stopping gatekeepers Robert Helenius and Otto Walin and MMA fighter Francis Ngannou.

Joshua hasn’t fought since, meaning the form of the win that does most to suggest Dubois really is ready to give Usyk a run for his money has an air of dubiousness about it.

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