The NFL postseason begins this weekend with the Wildcard round of the playoffs, in which 12 franchises bid to join AFC Champions and two-time defending Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs and NFC winners the Detroit Lions in the divisional round.
Our best bets are all totals plays banking the league’s least entertaining travellers, an underestimated ‘O’ line and two teams that come with an entertainment guarantee.
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
Texans vs Chargers – Under 38.5 total points @ 7/5
Ravens vs Steelers – Over 18/5 Steelers points @ 11/8
Buccaneers vs Commanders – Over 52.5 total points @ 23/20
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Chargers’ buzzkill away form makes under the play in Houston
The LA Chargers had the second lowest road game total points average of any team in the NFL during the regular season at 37.11, so under 38.5 total points has to come under serious consideration at 7/5 when they visit wildcard round opponents the Houston Texans.
Houston have scored 23 or fewer in each of their last five outings and they’ll be lucky to get anywhere that modest haul against the stingiest defence in the league.
The Chargers are at their least generous away from home, conceding just 13.89 points per game on average on their travels. No other team in either conference averaged less than 18, but their road points scored average of 23.22 means they won’t run away with this.
Pick: Texans vs Chargers – Under 38.5 total points @ 7/5
Dismissive team points total within reach for Steelers O line
The Pittsburgh Steelers are -9.5 point underdogs for their wildcard mission to Maryland but that surely underestimates their chances against rivals they beat 18-16 on home turf in week 11.
Baltimore did get their revenge in no uncertain terms with a more comprehensive 34-17 victory in week 16 though, so a better way to back the idea that the visitors may have been dealt with too dismissively by the spread setters could be their team total points line.
Over 18.5 points has to be within the Steelers’ grasp given they’ve registered 18 and 17 against the Ravens inside the last eights weeks.
Pick: Ravens vs Steelers – Over 18.5 Steelers points @ 11/8
Points banquet in the offing as regular season entertainers meet again
A lofty totals line was always likely to be in prospect for the face-off between the Bucs and Commanders, both of whom came with an entertainment guarantee in the regular season.
The default line for this Raymond James Stadium encounter is set at 50.5. The 17/20 on offer about the overs looks very fair given Tampa games averaged 52.18 total points this term and Washington matches only slightly less at 51.53.
Adding another two points to line to surmount pushes the odds north of even money and looks worth shooting for, not least because these two met all the way back in week 1, with the Bucs winning 37-20 in a 57 point game.
That was one of the eight regular season Washington games that would’ve landed our suggested bet (not including OT). Six Tampa match-ups would’ve done likewise.
Pick: Buccaneers vs Commanders – Over 52.5 total points @ 23/20
