Week three of the 2025 NFL season begins with the 0-2 Miami Dolphins 5/1 dogs @ the 2-0 Buffalo Bills on Thursday night football, but the rest of the slate looks plenty more competitive.
Surprisingly there are value bets to be found in siding with the 2-0 Indianapolis Colts and opposing the 0-2 Chicago Bears, while elsewhere our injury-report-anticipating under play should cop even if the in-doubt quarterback makes the line up.
Colts can continue winning start and cover in the process
The 2-0 Indianapolis Colts look decent value to overcome a -3.5 handicap on the road to the 0-2 Tennessee Titans at 22/5 after backing up a 33-8 week one win over the Miami Dolphins with a come from behind 29-28 victory over the Denver Broncos at home last week.
As a yardstick, the Titans’ own 20-8 home loss to Denver in week one feels instructive here and they followed that defeat up with a 33-19 reverse at the hands of the LA Chargers last week.
Colts (-3.5) to cover vs Titans
@ 22/5
Easy call to oppose tough-to-fathom Chicago favouritism
Even in deepest Illinois it’s hard to imagine there will be punters queuing up to back the Chicago Bears as 41/50 moneyline favourites when the Dallas Cowboys visit Soldier Field.
Instead 1-1 Dallas look good value moneyline picks at 22/25 against a 0-2 Bears unit that were battered 52-21 by Detroit in Motor City last week. The Cowboys got within four points of the Eagles in week one and followed that up with a 40-37 win over the Giants last Sunday.
Cowboys moneyline vs Bears
@ 22/5
Potential Daniels absence makes under the early value
The 5/6 on offer about under 44.5 total points when the Washington Commanders host the Las Vegas Raiders looks good value even before the potential for the home team’s first choice QB Jayden Anthony to miss the game with knee ligament pain is factored into the equation.
Only the Houston Texans (14) have averaged less points than Vegas (14.5) over the first two game weeks, while Washington have averaged a still-modest 19 even with Anthony available.
Both teams also feature among the top-six stingiest defences in the NFL after two games, with identical averages of 16.5 points conceded per game.
Raiders vs Commanders - Under 44.5 points
@ 5/6
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