Things are getting serious in the NFL Playoffs with Conference winners the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) and the Detroit Lions (NFC) entering the fray at the Divisional Round stage this weekend.
Kansas City are -8.5-point favourites to beat the Texans, but their home record this season suggests they’re worth opposing on those terms. The same can be said for -1.5-point road jollies Baltimore when they travel to face a brilliant Buffalo side.
NFL Playoffs Divisional Round best bets
Texans (+8.5) vs Chiefs
Lions vs Commanders under 56.5 points
Bills (+1.5) to cover vs Ravens
Bet on more American Football odds at Betzone
Texans can exploit week off rust to run Chiefs close at Arrowhead
Houston proved us wrong by disposing of the LA Chargers in Texas last weekend, scoring 32 points on the team with the lowest regular season road points conceded average in the NFL.
Two-time defending Super Bowl winners Kansas City are an altogether tougher proposition but the Texans are no forlorn hope when it comes to covering the spread as 8.5-point underdogs.
That 8.5-point headstart would have seen them cover when going down 27-19 to the Chiefs at the Arrowhead Stadium in week 16 and the fact they must travel to Kansas City again may actually enhance their chances of repeating the feat.
KC won all eight of their home games in a dominant regular season but only once did they prevail by a margin of more than eight points. The rust of a week on the sidelines watching on can contribute to them failing to prevail by nine or more.
Pick: Texans (+8.5) vs Chiefs
Sky-high total points line has to be limbo’d in Motor City match-up
Unders was the place to be in the Wildcard Round, with seven out of the eight games falling short of the main total points line. Following the logic that playoff intensity dials down the scoring it makes sense to steer south of the towering 56.5 points line when Detroit host Washington.
Lions home games averaged a bonkers 57.22 points during the regular season, but those totals included beatdowns on the Titans and the Jaguars in which the hosts alone bagged 52.
Commanders matches averaged 51.53 points this regular season, but they largely left big scores behind as the campaign reached the business end. Three of their last five outings produced 43 or fewer, while one of the remainder needed overtime to get to 50.
Pick: Lions vs Commanders under 56.5 points
Home dogs Buffalo can avenge September’s beatdown in Baltimore
The undisputed match-up of the weekend pits Josh Allen’s Bills against Lamar Jackson’s Ravens, with Baltimore -1.5-point spread favourites despite playing on enemy soil.
A dominant 35-10 win over Buffalo in Maryland back in week three would go some way to explaining the Betzone odds compilers’ assessment. However, the Bills were without key defencemen Terrel Bernard, Taron Johnson, and Matt Milano for that particular fixture.
All three are back in business for a team that has since inflicted the Chiefs’ only meaningful defeat of the campaign and bested NFC champs the Detroit Lions. Backing the underdogs to come out on top on the +1.5 spread looks like value as a result.
