Seven months after Oleksandr Usyk beat Tyson Fury on points to make history as the first undisputed heavyweight champion of boxing’s four-belt era the pair are back in Riyadh for the rematch, live via pay-per-view on DAZN, Sky Sports Box Office, and TNT Sports Box Office.
Much has been made of Fury’s better preparation for their second encounter, as well as the Gypsy King’s ability to adapt his strategy gainfully in rematches and the fact that he is likely to weigh in heavier this time around.
However, Usyk is 8/11 favourite to retain his belts for a reason and the younger man is expected to prevail to supplement his legacy as one of the sport’s great big men.
Wilder rematches a false emblem of Fury’s ability to adapt
Many pundits have touted the Gypsy King’s ability to adapt his approach in rematches, with the seventh round KO bullying of Deontay Wilder in their second meeting considered the exemplar.
However, what the talking heads have overlooked is the enormous superiority in boxing IQ Fury enjoyed over that one-trick pony with a ludicrously-effective trick.
To effect such an improvement in strategy and performance over a boxer of Usyk’s ring-IQ will be a greater challenge by many, many orders of magnitude.
Nor should it be forgotten that Fury failed to improve his Wilder game-plan again when the pair met in the third and final instalment of their trilogy. The British fighter had to overcome two knockdowns in round four of that encounter to win a see-sawing war in round 11.
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Usyk wore four rounds of Gypsy King bodywork and roared back
Fury himself has retrospectively described the earlier parts of his first fight with Usyk to be among the best rounds of his career and it’s fair to say he had the Ukrainian on the back foot when he focused on the champion’s supposed ‘weakness’ to the body in rounds 4-7.
However, contrary to the suggestions of the myopic commentary heard on the UK coverage of the fight, the younger man never looked that close to being in real trouble.
Indeed it took Usyk only a few rounds to neutralise Fury’s approach, before turning the fight in round eight and pushing his rival to the very limits of his miraculous powers of recovery in round nine, where the bout might have been stopped were it a fight of less significance.
Heavier Fury will have less rounds of peak output and be easier to hit
Much has been made of the likelihood the Gypsy King will weigh in 10 lbs or more heavier for his second clash with Usyk than he did with the first – perhaps because of the easy parallels it offers up with the spurious comparison with his first Wilder rematch.
However, while Fury’s greater heft this time around may add force to his blows, it will also sap his stamina, which, in the long run, will make him easier to hit and his opponent harder to catch. That could well work out to his disadvantage against an foe whose likeliest victory method has to be on points.
Oleksandar Usyk vs Tyson Fury II prediction
Usyk may have rocked Fury in round nine of their first encounter but he noticeably took his foot off the gas in the following round and has stopped just one of his five world level opponents at heavyweight. Fury will have more respect for his power this time and that should equate to a cagier contest.
