Week 10 of the 2024 NFL campaign is here and the Kansas City Chiefs are 9.5-point favourites to stretch their perfect start to the season to nine wins against the Denver Broncos.
The two-time defending NFL champions’ heavy favouritism is hard to argue with but our NFL Week 10 picks are more concerned with some very intriguing underdogs.
NFL Week 10 picks
Steelers (+1.5) to beat Commanders @ 23/20
Buccaneers (+4.5) to beat 49ers @ 21/20
Dolphins over 25.5 points at Rams @ 21/20
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Giants form line makes rested dogs the pick at flattered Commanders
The 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers return to the fray after their bye week as 1.5-point underdogs away to the 7-2 Washington Commanders, but despite both sides having strong records there’s only one way to play this one.
Both teams won their most recent matchups against the same opponents, the New York Giants, with Pittsburgh making out marginally better as 26-18 winners in week eight than Washington, who recorded a 27-22 margin of victory who bested the Giants in week nine.
Washington may have an extra win to their name than the Steel City side, but their strength of schedule (.388) is the lowest in the NFC and second-lowest in the whole league.
Pittsburgh’s is a more respectable .429, suggesting they’re more than capable of winning against the spread with a 1.5-point headwind and a week’s rest in their pockets.
Pick: Steelers (+1.5) to beat Commanders @ 23/20
Back Bucs shining amid tough schedule to win with handy head start
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are somewhat slighted as 4.5-point underdogs at home to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and well worth backing to win with that cushion at odds of 21/20.
At .679, their strength of schedule so far is rated the harshest in the NFL (the next toughest is that of Arizona on .613), yet they’ve already recorded some great wins and shown great quality in defeat as the only team to beat the 7-1 Lions and the only ones to push the 8-0 Chiefs to OT.
San Francisco rate more mortal foes than those, having compiled a 4-4 record despite a more modest strength of schedule (.515), while their significantly lower strength of victory score (.343) highlights that their wins come against some of the league’s more modest opposition.
The Buccaneers are a strong 19/10 moneyline bet to condemn their guests to a third road loss in four this season. At 21/20 to win with a 4.5-point head start they’re even better.
Pick: Buccaneers (+4.5) to beat 49ers @ 21/20
Dolphins over looks with within reach with Tua back in groove
The Miami Dolphins have the lowest points-scored tally in the NFL this season, with their miserable total of 124 points averaging out at just 15 per game. However, they look a good bet to score over 25.5 points against 1.5-point favourites the LA Rams.
Things have been looking up offensively in no uncertain terms since starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from a four-game absence two games back after recovering from a shuddering concussion sustained versus the Buffalo Bills in the second game of the campaign.
Miami have racked up 27 points in defeat in both outings since Tagovailoa’s return to the starting line up. That number feels achievable once more against opposition that have averaged 24.25 points conceded per game this season.
