The October international break sees England step out in fixtures three and four of the Lee Carsley interim era, with Greece visiting Wembley on Thursday night before they fly out to Finland to face the hosts in Reykjavik on Sunday afternoon.
Prior to the Three Lions’ 2-0 home win over the Finns Carsely spoke of wanting his team to adapt a more thrilling style than that which embodied the side’s latter-day showings under Gareth Southgate:
“I think when fans come to watch England play at home they expect attacking football, they expect chances to be created and to play with a tempo and us to be on the ball. It’s entertainment.”
However, despite the former Everton midfielder’s positivity, backing their upcoming Nations League games to be low-scoring affairs should be the anchor leg for Three Lions build-a-bets, with under 2.5 goals landing in nine of their last 11 competitive games.
England Nations League Matchday 3 & 4 tips
England vs Greece – Under 2.5 goals @ 19/20
Finland vs England – Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10
Bet on the latest UEFA Nations League odds
It’s been 11 competitive matches since England bagged more than twice
Back in June 2023, the Three Lions ran up 11 unanswered goals in two internationals against Malta and North Macedonia, with finding the net coming so easily that even Kalvin Phillips got on the scoresheet in the 7-0 trouncing of the latter.
Since then something seems to have fouled up England’s previously fully-functioning attacking mechanism. They’ve struck one normal time goal or less in six of the last 11 competitive games.
That incisiveness will only be hampered further by fitness concerns that seem certain to limit Harry Kane’s participation in both fixtures. The Bayern Munich striker has been responsible for six of the 15 goals scored by his countrymen in that 11-match sample.
Carsley’s defence more than has the measure of Nations League Group B2 foes
England have yet to concede in Nations League Group B2 after 2-0 wins over the Republic of Ireland and Finland, who managed a combined one shot on target over those two games.
European champions Spain are the only side to have scored as many as two goals against the Three Lions over their last 17 competitive games and xG stats suggested even Greece, who sit ahead of them in Group B2 on goal difference will struggle to beat Jordan Pickford.
The Greeks may have bagged five goals to England’s four, but they’ve actually hugely outperformed an xG of 1.83 over the first two games (as per Opta) by more than three goals.
Sunday’s hosts Finland, meanwhile, are less likely to sully the Three Lions sheet by several orders of magnitude, having earned an xG of just 0.65 goals over their first two outings in the section.
