Dricus Du Plessis will defend his UFC middleweight title for the first time at UFC 305 in Australia but the South African finds himself priced up as 19/20 underdog to beat 4/5 favourite and former two-time champion Israel Adesanya.
The 185lb division is on a precipice in Perth with Du Plessis taken to upset the odds – putting an end to the era of ‘The Last Stylebender’ and starting one of his own in the process.
UFC 305 betting tips
Dricus du Plessis to beat Israel Adesanya @ 19/20
Dricus du Plessis to win on points @ 9/2
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Formbook suggests ‘Stillknocks’ has the edge over ex-champ on the wane
There’s zero arguing with Adesanya’s UFC record at middleweight. The Nigerian won an interim title fight, locked down the full title in his next outing and then defended it six times in a row. Even when that streak ended with a stoppage defeat to Alex Pereira, he won the rematch next time out.
However, he’s now 35, five years Du Plessis’ senior and after winning his first 20 MMA fights, he’s now lost three of his last seven, including two of his last three. For all the predictable noises about this being his best fight prep yet, as favourites go, he’s well worth taking on.
Du Plessis has less miles on the clock and he has also fared better against the pair’s recent shared opponents. The 30-year-old beat out Robert Strickland 48-47 on two of the judges’ scorecards to claim his title by split decision. Strickland had taken Adesanya’s belt with unanimous 49-46 verdicts.
Previously the South African had beaten Robert Whittaker by second round stoppage at UFC 290, 15 months after his Nigerian challenger had shaded a decision victory over the same opponent. Asked for his prediction on this fight, Whittaker favoured Du Plessis. We see no reason to disagree.
Tip: Dricus du Plessis to beat Israel Adesanya @ 19/20
Points verdict the best route to extra value in backing South African success
The two shortest options in the method of victory betting are Adesanya on points (2/1), or by KO/TKO/DQ or Technical Decision (3/1), but we’re with the underdog here.
KO/TKO/DQ or Technical Decision (7/2) is priced up as Du Plessis’ most likely route to a win, as befits a man who has won four of his seven outings in UFC by stoppage, while a submission success is 5/1.
Only one of Adesanya’s three UFC defeats have come by KO/TKO, with one of the others coming by decision up in weight when he challenger for the belt at light heavy. His chin has answered virtually every question in 27 career MMA bouts. He has yet to be submitted in that lengthy back catalogue.
At 9/2, the Du Plessis points win is the play for a variety of reasons. The South African’s sole title fight so far in this promotion went the distance, as have five of Adesanya’s last seven in the UFC.
